Kharis Templeman
中文姓名:祁凱立
  • Home
  • Research
  • Teaching
  • CV
  • Blog
  • Taiwan Studies Resources

Ma vs Wang, Lesson 3: Ma thought removing Wang would solve his problems with the legislature. It won't.

9/26/2014

1 Comment

 
For previous posts in this series: intro, one, two.
Picture
Legislative Yuan Speaker Wang Jin-pyng turns down an offer to be the vice-presidential candidate on the KMT ticket, as Ma Ying-jeou looks on, May 31, 2007.
What motivated President Ma to attempt to expel Wang Jin-pyng from the KMT last September? One possibility is that Ma was genuinely troubled by the compelling evidence in the influence-peddling case brought against Wang, and saw the revelations as a moment to take a stand against corruption within the KMT’s legislative caucus. It’s hard to square this theory with the inconsistent reaction of Ma to other cases of scandal in the KMT, though, as this blog post by Frozen Garlic notes.

Another possibility is that the dispute was personal. There’s ample evidence of a long-running Ma-Wang rivalry that goes back at least to the party chairman’s election in 2005, when Ma trounced Wang with over 70 percent of valid votes. As Ma prepared to run for president, Wang declined an invitation to run on the ticket as Ma’s vice president. So there may be some lingering animosity from this history. But this story isn’t very convincing, either. For one, savvy politicians rarely let personal feelings get in the way of political strategy—and those that do tend not to last in politics very long.

I think the answer lies elsewhere. If we think entirely in strategic terms, stripped of emotion and morals, there are two institutional reasons why Ma might have viewed Wang Jin-pyng in his role as speaker of the Legislative Yuan as a major impediment to his agenda, and thus sought to replace him with a more pliable figure.

1. Wang chairs the Cross-Party Negotiation Committee. The Cross-Party Negotiation Committee (in Chinese: 黨團協商, 政黨協商 or 朝野協商) is the body charged with resolving inter-party conflicts over legislative procedure. As this article details, it was created in the late 1990s in an attempt to reduce uncertainty and increase legislative efficiency, which had been disrupted by “wildcat” protests by opposition legislators. It came into force in 1999, the same year that Wang Jin-pyng became LY speaker, so its role is inextricably intertwined with Wang’s stewardship as the head of the legislature. 

As far as I have been able to tell, the CPNC is not well understood, even among Taiwanese political scientists who specialize in legislative politics. The basic rules (detailed here) are: 
  • Every party caucus (which requires a minimum of 3 members) is allowed one representative, typically the party caucus whip.  
  • The CNPC meets at the discretion of the LY Speaker; in practice this happens whenever there's a boycott or blockade in the legislature, which has happened at least 80 times in this LY.
  • Discussions are supposed to be recorded or otherwise made public; this rule is blatantly and routinely violated.
  • Any legislative action agreed to by all party representatives in the CNPC will not be opposed by individual members of each caucus, allowing for expedited reviews, votes, or other legislative actions.
I've not been able to identify any consensus about the ultimate effect the CPNC has on the conduct of legislative business. At one extreme, the CPNC could be working to formalize a minority party veto over all legislative action. That is, because all parties have to agree in the CNPC, even the smallest parties (the Taiwan Solidarity Union right now has only 3 members) could effectively block controversial legislation by withholding agreement in the committee.  That would require virtually everything to pass with the consent of all parties--an alarmingly high threshold for policy change.

At the other extreme, the CPNC could just function as a more formal version of the informal discussions that take place all the time between different parties in the legislature, and give no extra meaningful authority in practice to opposition parties.

The conversations I've had with people at the legislature suggest that the CPNC looks a lot more like the second situation than the first: to the extent negotiations in this body are meaningful, it is because the opposition parties are able to do things outside the CPNC to block majority action on legislation. And if negotiations in the committee actually were on the record, as the statute requires, the party leaders would simply move them out of that committee and somewhere else private.  Thus, the CPNC is not really the place where the president's agenda goes to die. If President Ma thought getting rid of Wang would gut the CNPC and streamline legislative action, he had the wrong target in mind.
2. Wang does not use police force to end opposition blockades.  Rather than in the Cross-Party Negotiation Committee, the opposition's power to block ruling party legislation lies primarily in its ability to occupy the speaker's podium, and thus to prevent legislative sessions from being gaveled in. As I noted in the previous post, this type of action is something like a filibuster, and it is not absolute; the KMT caucus ended one of these blockades by physically removing opposition legislators from the podium prior to the passage of ECFA in 2010. The inability of the KMT to repeat that success in recent months is probably because of dissension within the majority party caucus itself, rather than anything the opposition is doing differently.
Picture
DPP legislator Chang Chun-hsiung (right) slaps Legislative Yuan Speaker Liang Su-jung at the speaker's podium, April 12, 1991.
A shoving match is not the only way the majority party could counter an opposition party blockade of the speaker's podium, however. The Speaker also has the authority to call in the LY's security force to restore order. As this article describes, the "sergeant at arms" power (警察權) has been used a total of six times, all before 1992 when the legislature was fully democratic (i.e. the majority of legislators were still permanent representatives of mainland China):
  • 1988.12.06: DPP legislators objecting to the continued presence of permanent unelected "Eternal Legislators" (萬年立委) try to grab the microphone from the speaker, Liu Kuo-tsai (劉闊才), starting a fight. Liu calls in the police and throws the DPP legislators out of the chambers.
  • 1989.07.04: As a protest against the unelected legislators, DPP legislator Wu Yung-hsiung (吳勇雄) stands at the presentation podium (發言台) and refuses to budge. Speaker Liu calls security personnel in to have him removed from the chamber.
  • 1990.05.29: Hau Pei-tsun, the sitting Minister of Defense and a retired military general, is nominated to be the next premier by President Lee Teng-hui. During the confirmation hearing, the DPP criticizes the nomination, calling Hau the head of a new “military cabinet” (軍人組閣). (Until 1997, premiers had to receive LY confirmation before taking office.) During the confirmation vote, a physical altercation breaks out between KMT and opposition LY members, and Speaker Liang calls in security to restrain the opposition.
  • 1990.11.06: DPP members are unhappy that Speaker Liang permits Premier Hau to give perfunctory answers to legislators (“敷衍兩句“). A fight breaks out while Hau's remarks are being read into the official record, and Liang again calls in security to quash the opposition’s protests.
  • 1990.12.18: Upset at the KMT caucus's sudden change to the legislative agenda, the DPP caucus starts a group protest, and DPP legislator Wei Yao-kan (魏耀乾) unplugs the microphone while Speaker Liang is attempting to start the session. For the third time in a year, Liang calls in security personnel, who struggle to restrain DPP legislators and restore order. 
  • 1991.04.12: The best-known incident: DPP legislator and future premier Chang Chun-hsiung (張俊雄) approaches Speaker Liang at the podium, hands him a letter of protest, and then without warning lightly slaps him, telling him that this is a “wake-up call” from the Taiwan people. Furious, Liang orders security into the chamber. DPP legislator Lu Hsiu-yi (盧修一) rushes to defend Chang, ends up injured at the bottom of the scrum with the police, and is sent to the hospital. A few moments of the confrontation can be seen in the video accompanying this news story.

Given these precedents, then, during any of the dozens of times the opposition parties have occupied the podium over the last year, Wang could have used this power to have them removed. And this presumably would have allowed action on everything on President Ma's agenda, including the Cross-Strait Services in Trade Agreement. So in a strictly legal sense, Speaker Wang has not used every weapon in his arsenal to ensure legislative action on executive priorities. He is allowing the opposition to block legislation without consequences. From Ma's perspective, then, a speaker more sympathetic to the president's agenda could use this power to end opposition blockades--thus, in all probability, the attempt to get rid of Wang. 
Picture
Speaker Wang, still banging away.
Ma Might Think Getting Rid of Wang Will Tame the Legislature. It Won't.
If we view the Speaker's authority over the legislature in its historical context, the picture is not nearly so simple. First, the sergeant-at-arms power has never been used in the democratic era. Taiwan today is a strikingly different place from Taiwan in 1991: most obviously, all legislators are subject to direct elections now. Calling in the police would be the political equivalent of dropping a nuclear bomb on the legislature. The opposition would no doubt go all-out to resist a police action in the legislative chambers and to play up the violence and drama, and the image of security forces dragging out opposition legislators would attract not only blanket domestic news coverage but probably also a great deal of opprobrium from abroad as well. 
 
It's also just not Wang's style--he's been able to survive as speaker in large part because he's viewed as a fair-minded and consensus-oriented leader, one of the few people who is well-connected and respected among both political camps. And even if Wang were in theory willing to entertain the idea, the fate of the last speaker to call in the police should give him pause: Liang Su-jung lasted barely over a year in the position before he had to resign. 

It's conceivable that, had Ma succeeded last September in expelling Wang from the party and creating a vacancy for the speaker's office, a Ma ally could have been installed in the position--someone like the KMT caucus whip Lin Hung-chih (林洪池). But he would face the same basic dilemma: he doesn't have the internal party unity to win a showdown with the DPP, and using the police to remove opposition legislators would impose a huge political cost. I'm skeptical that the KMT caucus would agree to bear that cost, or that they would support a nominee for speaker who was willing to impose it. 

Thus, removing Wang Jin-pyng from the Speaker's position was not likely to change the underlying situation much. Even if it had succeeded, I think Ma's attempt to purge Wang was a serious strategic miscalculation, and indicates a fundamental misunderstanding of how the legislature works.    
1 Comment

September 25, 2014: D.C. Conference on U.S.-Taiwan Policy

9/22/2014

0 Comments

 
PictureShen Lyu-shun has been the ROC representative to the United States since April 2014
Of possible interest to people in the D.C. area: the Project 2049 Institute is sponsoring a conference on U.S policy towards Taiwan, this Wednesday, September 25, on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C. The speakers will include the Taiwanese representative to the United States, Shen Lyu-shun (沈呂巡), and a former director of the American Institute in Taipei (AIT), Richard Bush, as well as the leading researcher on U.S.-Taiwan relations at the Congressional Research Service, Shirley Kan. Registration is free and open to the public. Details below.


The Taiwan Policy Review at 20 Years: Assessing the Future of U.S. Taiwan Policy 
In 1994, the Clinton Administration completed a comprehensive interagency review of U.S. policy toward Taiwan, the first of its kind launched by an administration since the U.S. shifted recognition from Taipei to Beijing in 1979. This review resulted in important policy adjustments in line with U.S. national security interests toward Taiwan. As we approach the 20th anniversary of the Taiwan Policy Review (TPR), it is important to assess U.S. policy since the TPR and assess where U.S. policy is heading in the future. Join us for a discussion on the history and significance of the TPR and the future of U.S.-Taiwan relations.

Thursday, September 25, 2014, 10 AM to 12 PM (Noon), Room 2237, Rayburn House Office Building

10 - 11 AM Keynote Speaker
Distinguished Keynote: 

Robert Suettinger, Senior Advisor and Consultant, Stimson Center

Commentators: 

Ambassador Winston Lord, former Ambassador to China and former Assistant Secretary of State
Ambassador Dr. Shen Lyushun, Representative of the ROC to the U.S.

11 AM - 12 PM Panel 
The Taiwan Policy Review: Context and Future Directions

Panelists: 

Richard Bush, Director, Center for East Asia Policy Studies, The Brookings Institution 
Randy Schriver, President and CEO, Project 2049 Institute

Commentator: 
Shirley Kan, Specialist in Asian Security Affairs, Congressional Research Service (CRS)

Moderator:
Sabrina Tsai, Research Fellow, Project 2049 Institute

0 Comments

Ma vs Wang, Lesson 2:  The KMT legislative caucus is Ma Ying-jeou's primary opponent

9/21/2014

0 Comments

 
For the previous posts in this series, see here and here.
Picture
Readying for battle: pan-Green and pan-Blue legislators wave competing signs before the opening of the legislative session, July 8, 2010.
Legislative Yuan Politics: Tyranny of the Minority?
For the last year, the fight over the Cross-Strait Services in Trade Agreement (CSSTA, or Fu-Mao for short) has taken center stage in Taiwanese politics. Although Fu-Mao has been the top policy priority of the Ma administration since it was signed June 21, 2013, it remains under review by the Legislative Yuan. Improving the prospects for Fu-Mao passage was probably the primary motivation behind the attempt to expel Legislative Yuan Speaker Wang Jin-pyng from the KMT. The opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and its nominal ally, the Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU), devoted much of their time working to slow the review process in the legislature, from initiating a physical confrontation in the LY over how the agreement would be reviewed, to demonstrations in hearings, to using parliamentary tricks to upset committee sessions. By the time Chang Ching-chung (張慶忠), the convener of the Internal Administration Committee, unilaterally announced that Fu-Mao had passed the committee in the now-infamous "30-second review" on March 18, 2014, the agreement had already languished for nine months.

The apparent success of the pan-Green parties in blocking Fu-Mao, despite not holding anything close to a majority in the legislature (the DPP and TSU together have only 43 of 113 seats, or 38%), suggests at first glance that a highly motivated minority can exercise de facto veto power over all legislative business. How you feel about that probably depends on your view about cross-Strait trade agreements: -pan-Blue types (i.e. pro-KMT) tend to think of this as a "tyranny of the minority" and a terrible affront to the democratic principle of majority rule, while pan-Green types like to characterize it as a heroic, nation-saving stand in the face of a ruling party captured by Chinese interests. But if we step away from the particular issue of Fu-Mao, and think about what's best for Taiwan's democracy in the abstract, allowing minority parties an effective veto over anything they don't like is troubling. 

Imagine if the partisan roles were reversed. In fact, let's take a DPP dream scenario: say, a hypothetical President Tsai Ing-wen taking office in 2016, and enjoying a newly elected pan-Green majority in the legislature, attempts to win legislative approval for a special budget to purchase a new arms package just approved by the U.S. Then imagine the opposition pan-Blue parties, despite controlling only a minority of the seats, effectively blocking this proposal, as they did several times (with a majority) during the Chen Shui-bian administration? If you're a pan-Green supporter, you're very quickly going to change your tune about minority party rights and heroic boycotts and blockades, no?  So, if minority parties really are able to exercise a de facto veto in the legislature, that does not bode well for coherent policy change in a place whose political elites are highly polarized over anything to do with cross-Strait relations. You're effectively stuck with the status quo.
PictureKMT legislators celebrate the passage of the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) in the Legislature, August 16, 2010.
Minority Party Obstruction Requires Majority Party Dissent
Now, let me strike a more optimistic note: I do not actually think the opposition parties have an effective veto over everything in the LY. On the contrary, in President Ma's first term, the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement, which created the foundation for subsequent cross-Strait agreements like Fu-Mao and was also fiercely opposed by the DPP and TSU, passed the legislature only six weeks after it was signed. 

What the approval of ECFA indicates to me is that a president can get his priorities passed by the LY, even in the face of opposition party boycotts and blockades, if two conditions hold: (1) his party has a working majority, and (2) his own party's legislators are willing to vote the party line. What Ma is missing right now on Fu-Mao is the second: support from KMT legislators. In other words, the key disagreement over Fu-Mao right now is within the KMT, not between the Ma administration and the DPP or Speaker Wang.

This claim is not obvious, and it's more of a working hypothesis than a firm conclusion. But from conversations with political insiders and a close reading of actions in the LY, I'm increasingly convinced there was, even a year ago, significant opposition in the KMT's legislative caucus to Fu-Mao--enough opposition, in fact, that the agreement would probably have been rejected if the vote were secret. 

Why is the KMT, rather than the obstructionist tactics of the DPP, key to explaining the failure of the legislature to approve Fu-Mao? Because those tactics are only effective if the majority party isn't well-organized or committed to counter them. For instance, take the primary weapon the opposition uses: blockading the speaker's podium (霸佔主席台), which physically prevents Speaker Wang from gaveling in the legislative session (which normally happens every Tuesday and Thursday at 9am when the legislature is in session). This action is, roughly speaking, the Taiwanese version of a filibuster. Without a formal commencement of the legislative session, no LY business can be conducted, and actions such as the review of Fu-Mao cannot commence.

So what's to prevent the minority parties in the legislature from doing this all the time? The majority party tactic that's been used in recent years is to have a physical confrontation in the legislative chamber with blockading opposition legislators. As crazy as this might sound to the uninitiated, the majority party can clear a path to the podium by rallying all of its members to the LY floor and shoving the opposition out of the way in what looks like a rugby scrum. The video shown here (also see the photo at left) is an example of a successful effort.

It's easy to get so distracted by all the chaos and the spectacle of elected legislators throwing things at one another that you miss the critical outcome of this scrum: Speaker Wang gavels in the session to begin the second reading of ECFA. (One can just make him out at the back of the crowd, waiting for a path to clear. The video shows more of the sequence.) The KMT caucus then votes down a series of motions by the DPP to stall or to make ECFA subject to an item-by-item review. 
Picture
A phalanx of KMT legislators work to force DPP members out of the speaker's podium and end the minority blockade of the legislative session. Speaker Wang Jin-pyng subsequently gaveled in the session, and the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement proceeded to the second reading, July 8, 2010.
Eventually, Speaker Wang worked out a procedural compromise in which the opposition DPP was allowed to offer amendments to each ECFA article, and the KMT then voted them all down, before the full bill was passed on August 17. This worked out okay for everyone: the DPP got a face-saving way to yield to the KMT majority, which was going to pass the bill one way or another; the KMT caucus got to avoid more fights on the floor; President Ma got ECFA approved; and Wang got to play peacemaker. 

If you think about it a bit, these kinds of physical confrontations shouldn't happen very often. They impose a cost on everyone: they attract a lot of negative media attention to the institution (including from CCTV in China!), people get hurt, etc. So there's an incentive for all sides to work out a compromise that precludes a public confrontation on the floor. The reason this doesn't happen all the time, I would guess, is uncertainty: neither party knows just how credible any given threat is by the KMT to initiate a confrontation in the LY and end a blockade. In the ECFA case, the July 8 showdown ended any uncertainty that the KMT would be able to mobilize its caucus to defend the speaker and end the blockade of the podium--in other words, that almost all KMT legislators supported ECFA and were willing to do whatever it took to get it passed. Once that became common knowledge, the DPP had only symbolic options left, like walking out of the legislative session in protest and getting an article-by-article vote it knew it would lose.
Picture
Second Term Blues: President Ma's approval rating, June 2008-June 2013
Between a Rock and a Hard Place (進退兩難): For KMT Legislators, Fu-Mao is not ECFA
So that brings us back to Fu-Mao, the Cross-Strait Services in Trade Agreement (CSSTA). If the KMT managed to get ECFA through the legislature in six weeks in 2010, then why wasn't it able to do the same for Fu-Mao in 2013? Nothing fundamental has changed in the legislature: the KMT lost some seats in the last election, but the party still has a significant majority (64/113, or 57%), even discounting the four additional legislators from the People First Party and Non-Partisan Solidarity Union who in general have voted with the KMT. The DPP and TSU are still quite solidly in the minority.

What has changed is public opinion, both toward President Ma and cross-Strait trade relations. When ECFA was signed in June 2010, Ma's public approval rating was about 47%--not great, but reasonably high given that Taiwan's economy was recovering from a severe recession that began almost as soon as he came into office.  Public support for ECFA was also positive: a TVBS survey in May 2010 found 41% of respondents approved of signing the agreement, while 34% disapproved.

By contrast, shortly after Fu-Mao was signed in June 2013, TVBS found public opinion running against the agreement, 47-30%, and Ma's approval rating at only 13%, with an astounding 73% of respondents disapproving of his performance, an all-time high. This was before any of the events of the subsequent year, including the Ma-Wang fight and the Sunflower Movement.

Given these polling numbers, it's not hard to see why support for Fu-Mao in the KMT caucus might have been a lot weaker than the party elites wanted to admit. Not only did legislators have to worry about all the criticism coming from industry groups and constituents within their districts. They also had to worry about the electoral consequences of taking a public stand in favor of an unpopular trade agreement with China, while going out on a limb for an even more unpopular president who's spent most of his time in office keeping them at arm's length. But Ma is still the party chairman, and has repeatedly indicated he's willing to discipline KMT members who don't toe the party line on this issue. That's the definition of being stuck between a rock and a hard place (進退兩難). 

So then the DPP comes along and blocks the speaker's podium, and dissenting KMT members have an escape hatch: publicly say nothing so as not to violate party dictates, but privately avoid being anywhere near the legislature when it comes time for a show of force to get the DPP to stand down. It's not a coincidence that there was another major showdown at the speaker's podium on June 25, 2013, shortly after Fu-Mao was signed on June 21. This one did not go so well for the KMT, or at least for Ma's allies: after six hours of altercations, the parties agreed to an extensive item-by-item review of Fu-Mao, against the wishes of the Ma administration. Buried in the news reports of this confrontation are two revealing differences with ECFA. First, the KMT leadership itself started the standoff by ordering legislators to try to secure the speaker's podium at 6:30am, to preempt pan-Green legislators who were planning to do the same. Second, they failed, in part because there were many fewer KMT legislators present than in 2010--note the failure to block off the back door. I'm willing to bet there are a few KMT members who were secretly thrilled with this outcome, because it got them off the hook from having to support an unpopular agreement or else face party discipline.
PictureDPP legislators block access to the voting box in the legislature, preventing a vote on Control Yuan nominees, July 4, 2014
I should reiterate that a lot of this explanation is informed speculation on my part. But even if I've got some of the details wrong, the fact remains that KMT legislators have been quite willing recently to criticize and vote against the party leadership on many different issues, especially if the votes are not public. The most striking instance of this kind of mass defection from the President's camp came just a couple of months ago over Control Yuan nominees. There was a rather bitter dispute between Ma and his allies in the LY, on one side, and what appeared to be the opposition DPP again, on the other, over how Control Yuan nominees would be voted on. Ma wanted to impose a public vote, because he was (rightly) worried that many of his nominees would go down to defeat otherwise. The pan-Greens instead demanded a secret vote. In the end, the DPP and TSU physically blocked access to the ballot boxes set up in the LY chambers, and then occupied the speaker's podium again; this strategy succeeded in forcing the vote to be carried out individually with private ballots, without the "group voting" that Ma's allies had initially devised to keep KMT members in line. And lo and behold, 11 of the 29 Control Yuan nominees were voted down--an outcome that could only have happened with at least eight "no" votes from KMT members. 

Politics in the Legislature: Messy, but Responsive to Public Opinion
Let me sum up what is now a rather long post. I've argued that there are some important strategic reasons behind all the spectacle of fights and occupations in the legislature:
  • The Taiwanese legislature features a limited minority veto;
  • When the majority party is cohesive and disciplined, minorities can't generally stop things they oppose;
  • But when there's dissent within the majority party, minority party obstruction becomes highly effective.
Thus, the Ma administration has been in a bind much of his second term: he wants to get legislative approval for Fu-Mao and other policy priorities, but these are unpopular, and so is he. And he's been unable to threaten or cajole KMT legislators into doing what it takes to overcome DPP opposition. What we've seen play out over the last year and more is at heart a consequence of Ma running up against his limited authority over the LY, even though he's the chairman of the majority party there. 

If you buy this argument, then the implication for democracy in Taiwan is a lot better than I implied in the last post: minorities in the LY don't generally exercise vetoes over everything they don't like, and majority parties, especially when they have public opinion on their side, can indeed get controversial things passed. It's only when public opinion is running strongly against something the executive wants that it's likely to stall in the legislature. And if you think elected representative parliaments should be broadly responsive to changing public opinion, then that's probably a good thing.

0 Comments

Ma vs Wang, Lesson 1: The Legislative Yuan matters more than ever for policy-making in Taiwan

9/19/2014

0 Comments

 
For the intro post in this series, see here.
Picture
The old days of executive dominance: premier Hau Pei-tsun orders Chen Shui-bian, then a DPP legislator, back to his seat in the Legislative Yuan, Oct. 21, 1992.
For most of Taiwan's postwar history, policy-making was highly centralized in the Executive Yuan and the KMT itself. The Legislative Yuan, by contrast, was mostly a talking shop that rubber-stamped government budgets and initiatives. That began to change with democratization, but it's been a slow process. Even today, the annual budget proposal is drafted by the executive, and the legislature is prevented from adding new spending--the only way for legislators to affect this process directly is to cut funding, or freeze funds once they've been appropriated.

Nevertheless, the legislature has steadily accumulated authority at the expense of executive ministries over the last two decades. The ability of opposition party legislators to make life tough for executive branch officials became especially apparent in the later years of the Chen Shui-bian administration, when a pan-Blue (KMT-PFP) alliance held a relatively unified majority of the seats in the LY. Legislative committee inquisitions of ministers were common, key bureaus had budgets cut or frozen for transparently partisan reasons, and much of the government's proposed legislation (with key exceptions) was blocked. 

At the time, the standoff between the two branches appeared due almost entirely to the intensely partisan atmosphere that prevailed from 2004-2008. Thus, when Ma Ying-jeou won the 2008 election and the KMT won over 3/4 of the seats in the LY, most observers expected executive-legislative relations to become much more cordial and cooperative again. And for Ma's first term, they seemed to be improved, although even then there were complaints about LY "inefficiency" at passing high-priority legislation.

But legislative independence has reemerged with a vengeance in Ma's second term, even though the KMT remains the majority party there. What is so striking about the events of the last year and more is that even in a period of "unified" party control of both branches, the LY has prevented a quick passage of the president's top policy priority--the CSSTA--and may have killed it for good. That is not an outcome that I would have predicted in 2012, when Ma was re-elected. 

From a systemic perspective, what's potentially more troubling is that the current situation is about the best a governing party in Taiwan could ever hope for: the KMT controls the presidency and a majority in the legislature, and the president is the chairman of the party. The unity of purpose across the branches should be highest in this scenario. If a president can't get his agenda approved by the legislature under these circumstances, when can he?
0 Comments

Ma vs Wang, One Year Later

9/19/2014

0 Comments

 
Picture
Legislative Yuan Speaker Wang Jin-pyng and President Ma Ying-jeou, playing nice for the cameras
Although it passed mostly unnoted in the Taiwanese media, last week marked the one-year anniversary of the (failed) attempt by President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) to expel Legislative Yuan Speaker Wang Jin-pyng (王金平) from the KMT. It has also been about a year since I started blogging regularly on Taiwanese politics, so the Ma-Wang fight featured prominently in my first posts.  At the time, I hadn’t paid much attention to intra-KMT politics or executive-legislative relations, and I quickly realized there was a lot I didn't understand. My working assumption had always been that because the KMT controlled a comfortable majority in the legislature, and President Ma was the chairman of the KMT, he could probably get most of what he wanted approved there. 

The sudden attempt to purge Speaker Wang suggested that executive-legislative policy-making was more complicated, and more interesting, than I had supposed. And the slow, foot-dragging review of the Cross-Strait Services in Trade Agreement (CSSTA) (兩岸服務貿易協議) --"Fu-Mao" for short--in the legislature put the lie to the idea that President Ma could ultimately wield control over the KMT to get executive priorities passed.  It eventually became clear that these two events were probably linked: that Ma's strike against Wang was motivated at least in part by his frustration with the slow pace of action on the CSSTA in the legislature. 

All this happened well before a procedural dispute sparked the student protest and occupation of the legislature that became known as the Sunflower Movement. Thus, while the student protests were unexpected and dramatic, and attracted a huge amount of foreign and domestic media attention, their main political achievement so far is to have reinforced the pre-existing stalemate between the legislature and the executive. The focus on the light and heat generated by the Sunflower Movement has, I think, obscured this fact: the legislature as an institution is a formidable and powerful opponent of the executive. 
Picture
Ma and Wang at the KMT party congress, September 15, 2014.
The narrative of the Ma administration is that the legislature is dysfunctional, and that the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is entirely to blame for the ruling party's troubles. At the KMT's party congress  this past week, for instance, President Ma criticized the DPP for its "endless" obstructionism and "abuse" of minority power. 

If the main opposition party in the legislature really does have the ability to block everything it doesn't like, then that is indeed worrisome for Taiwan's democracy. But it's not as simple as that. The DPP, for all its success in harassing cabinet officials and stalling government initiatives, is not able to exercise an effective veto over legislation as long as the KMT itself is unified. Thus, I think the fundamental political problem for Ma lies not with the opposition but within the KMT itself. 
In posts over the next few days, I'm going to elaborate on this claim, along with some thoughts on what it means for Taiwan's democracy. In particular, I think the events of the last year have demonstrated four things:
  1. The Legislative Yuan matters more than ever for policy-making.
  2. The KMT legislative caucus is the primary obstacle to presidential priorities--not the DPP, the Cross-Party Negotiation Committee, or Wang Jin-pyng.
  3. President Ma thought removing Wang Jin-pyng would solve his problems with the legislature. It won't.
  4. The Ma administration doesn't understand the politics of the legislature very well.

Separate posts will follow.
0 Comments

TDP Seminar: Scott Simon

9/10/2014

0 Comments

 
Picture
On October 3, 2014, the Taiwan Democracy Project will kick off our yearly speaker series with a seminar by Scott Simon on the politics of indigenous rights in Taiwan. Prof. Simon is an anthropologist in the School of Sociological and Anthropological Studies at the University of Ottawa, where he holds the Research Chair in Taiwan Studies. His talk is entitled, "All Our Relations: Indigenous Rights Movements and the Bureaucratization of Indigeneity in Taiwan." The abstract is below. The talk is free and open to the public; you are encouraged to RSVP at the official event page here.

Prof. Simon holds a Ph.D. in anthropology from McGill University, and began his career working in the anthropology of development. His previous publications include Tanners of Taiwan: Life Strategies and National Cultures (2005) and Sweet and Sour: Life-Worlds of Taipei Women Entrepreneurs (2003). Since 2004, he has worked extensively on ethnographic research with Truku and Sediq groups in both Hualien and Nantou counties, which formed the basis for his most recent book, published in French: Sadyaq Balae!: L'Autochtonie Formosane dans Tout Ses États (2012). Today, he is one of the most prominent scholars writing on the Taiwanese state's relations with indigenous "aborigines" (原住民), who by official counts make up about two percent of the island's population.  


All Our Relations: Indigenous Rights Movements and the Bureaucratization of Indigeneity in Taiwan

Taiwan’s indigenous social movement, active since the 1980s, has successfully lobbied to get indigenous rights included in the Republic of China Constitution, to create a cabinet level Council of Indigenous Peoples, and to pass the 2005 Basic Law on Indigenous Peoples. Taiwan’s indigenous social activists have also become regular participants in United Nations indigenous events. Especially during the Chen Shui-bian presidency, foreign observers often suspected that the state instrumentalized “indigeneity” to claim a distinct identity from China. Events since 2008, however, demonstrate that the indigenous rights movement has maintained its own momentum and that the indigenous peoples have interests that cannot be reduced to issues of national identity or party politics. In fact, the indigenous people overwhelmingly support the KMT, and indigenous movements are involved in both “pro-unification” and “pro-independence” political networks.  Most indigenous social movement leaders, as well as ordinary indigenous people, hope that their movement can make progress in indigenous rights in ways that transcend the “blue” and “green” division between Han Taiwanese. This talk will explore the diversity of the indigenous movements, their mobilization strategies, and values since Ma Ying-jeou was elected President of the ROC in 2008.
0 Comments

    RSS Feed

    About Me

    I am a political scientist with research interests in democratization, elections and election management, parties and party system development, one-party dominance, and the links between domestic politics and external security issues. My regional expertise is in East Asia, with special focus on Taiwan.

    Archives

    March 2023
    February 2023
    January 2023
    December 2022
    November 2022
    October 2022
    September 2022
    August 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    March 2021
    February 2021
    December 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    September 2019
    August 2019
    November 2018
    August 2018
    June 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    October 2017
    August 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015
    September 2015
    July 2015
    June 2015
    May 2015
    March 2015
    February 2015
    January 2015
    November 2014
    October 2014
    September 2014
    August 2014
    July 2014
    May 2014
    April 2014
    March 2014
    February 2014
    January 2014
    December 2013
    November 2013
    October 2013
    September 2013

    Categories

    All
    1992 Elections
    2008 Elections
    2012 Elections
    2014 Elections
    2016 Elections
    2020 Elections
    2022 Elections
    Aacs
    Aborigines
    Alex Tsai
    Alicia Wang
    Annette Lu
    Announcements
    Apsa
    Apsa Cgots
    Arthur P Wolf
    Blog Meta
    Book Review
    Campaign Regulation
    CCP
    CDDRL
    CEC
    Chang Ching Chung
    Chang Chun Hsiung
    Chang Jung-wei
    Chang Li-shan
    Chang Ming-ta
    Chang Sho-wen
    Chen Che-nan
    Chen Chien-nian
    Chen Chi Mai
    Chen Chin-te
    Chen Ding-nan
    Chen Fu-hai
    Cheng Chao-fang
    Cheng Cheng-ling
    Cheng Pao-ching
    Chen Kuang-fu
    Chen Ming-wen
    Chen Ou-pu
    Chen Shih Chung
    Chen Shih-chung
    Chen Shui Bian
    Chen Tsang-chiang
    Chen Wan-hui
    Chen Wei-chung
    Chen Ying
    Chen Yu-chen
    Chiang Chi-chen
    Chiang Ching Kuo
    Chiang Jui-hsiung
    Chiang-kai-shek
    Chiang Tsung-yuan
    Chiang Wan-an
    Chin Hui Chu
    Chou Chiang-chieh
    Chou Chun-mi
    Chou Hui-huang
    Chuang Suo Hang
    Chung Chia-pin
    Chung Tung-chin
    Citizen 1985
    Civil Society
    Conferences
    Control Yuan
    Council Of Grand Justices
    Cross-party-negotiating-committee
    Cross Strait Relations
    CSSTA
    Defense Spending
    Developmental State
    Diplomacy
    Disinformation
    DPP
    DPP Policy Papers
    Eats
    Economic-voting
    Electoral Geography
    Electoral Reform
    Electoral Systems Wonkery
    Energy Policy
    Eric Chu
    Executive Yuan
    Fan Yun
    Fellowship
    Frank Hsieh
    Freddy Lim
    Frida Tsai
    Fu Kun-chi
    Germany
    Han Kuo Yu
    Han Kuo-yu
    Hau Lung Bin
    Hau Pei Tsun
    Henry Rowen
    Ho Kan-ming
    Hoover Institution
    Hou You Yi
    Hou You-yi
    Hsiao Bi Khim
    Hsiao Bi-khim
    Hsieh Fu-hung
    Hsieh Kuo-liang
    Hsieh Lung-chieh
    Hsieh Sam Chung
    Hsu Chen-wei
    Hsu Chih-jung
    Hsu Chung-hsin
    Hsu Hsin-ying
    Hsu Shu-hua
    Hsu Ting-chen
    Huang Hong-cheng
    Huang Kuo Chang
    Huang Kuo-chang
    Huang Min-hui
    Huang Shan Shan
    Huang Shan-shan
    Huang Shih Ming
    Huang Shiou-fang
    Huang Wei-che
    Huang Yung-chin
    Human Rights
    Hung Hsiu Chu
    Hung Tzu Yung
    Hung Tzu-yung
    Influence Operations
    In Memoriam
    Internship
    James Soong
    Japan
    Jiang Yi Huah
    Job Market
    John Chiang
    John Wu
    Journal Of Democracy
    Kao Hung-an
    Kawlo Iyun Pacidal
    Ker Chien Ming
    KMT
    Kmt History
    Ko Chih-en
    Kolas Yotaka
    Ko Wen Je
    Lai Ching-te
    Lai Feng-wei
    Lai Hsiang-ling
    Lee Chin-yung
    Lee Chun-yi
    Legal-wonkery
    Legislative Yuan
    Liang-kuo-shu
    Liang Su Jung
    Lien Chan
    Lii Wen
    Lin Chia-lung
    Lin Chih-chien
    Lin Fei-fan
    Lin Geng-ren
    Lin Hung Chih
    Lin Ming-chen
    Lin Tsung-hsien
    Lin Zi Miao
    Lin Zi-miao
    Liu Chao-hao
    Liu Cheng-ying
    Liu Chien-kuo
    Liu Kuo Tsai
    Lo Chih Cheng
    Lu Hsiu Yi
    Lu Shiow-yen
    Ma Vs Wang
    Ma Ying Jeou
    Media
    Media Freedom
    Min Kuo Tang
    Nationalism
    Natsa
    NCC
    New Power Party
    Nuclear Power
    Occupy LY
    Pingpuzu
    Political Economy
    Political Science
    PRC
    PTIP
    Publications
    Public Opinion
    Quality Of Democracy
    Ramon Myers
    Rao Ching-ling
    ROC Constitution
    Russia
    Saidai Tarovecahe
    Sean Lien
    Security Studies
    Shen Hui-hung
    Shen Lyu Shun
    Simon Chang
    Song Kuo-ting
    South Korea
    Speaker Series
    Stanford
    Statistics
    Street Protests
    Su Ching-chuan
    Su Huan-chih
    Su Jia Chyuan
    Su Jia-chyuan
    Sunflower Movement
    Su Tseng-chang
    Taiwanese Economy
    Taiwan Journal Of Democracy
    Taiwan People's Party
    Taiwan Rural Front
    Taiwan Solidary Union
    Taiwan Studies
    Taiwan World Congress
    Terry Gou
    Testimony
    The Diplomat
    This Week In Taiwan
    Ting Shou Chung
    Trade Relations
    Trans Pacific Partnership
    Tsai Chi-chang
    Tsai Ing Wen
    Tsai Shih-ying
    Tsao Chi-hung
    Tsao Er-yuan
    Tseng Yung Chuan
    Tzu Chi
    Ukraine
    United Nations
    Uscc
    US Taiwan NextGen
    Us Taiwan Relations
    V-dem
    Wang Chien-hsien
    Wang Chung-ming
    Wang Huei-mei
    Wang Jin Pyng
    Wang Mei-hui
    Wan Mei-ling
    Wei Yao Kan
    Wellington Koo
    Weng Chang-liang
    Wild Lily Movement
    Wilson Center
    Wu Den Yi
    Wu Yung Hsiung
    Xi Jinping
    Yang Cheng-wu
    Yang Shi-chiu
    Yang Wen-ke
    Yang Yao
    Yao Eng-chi
    Yao Wen-chih
    Yosi Takun
    You Si-kun
    Yu Shyi Kun

    RSS Feed

Powered by Create your own unique website with customizable templates.