Kharis Templeman
中文姓名:祁凱立
  • Home
  • Research
  • Teaching
  • CV
  • Blog
  • Taiwan Studies Resources

TDP Seminar: Cortez Cooper on December 1

11/30/2015

0 Comments

 
Picture
The Taiwan Democracy Project will hold its next seminar of the fall on December 1, in conjunction with the new U.S.-Asia Security Initiative at the Asia-Pacific Research Center at Stanford. The speaker is Cortez Cooper, a senior international policy analyst at the RAND Corporation. He will be speaking about potential changes in cross-Strait relations and China's security strategy in light of the upcoming 2016 presidential and legislative elections in Taiwan. The event is free and open to the public; you can register at the event page.

​The talk is entitled: "Of Paradigms, Politics and Principles: The 2016 Taiwan Elections and Implications for China’s Security Strategy and Cross-Strait Relations." Details are below.


Abstract
​
During the recent meeting between PRC President Xi Jinping and Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou, the “1992 One China Consensus” served as a mutually acceptable paradigm for maintaining “peaceful and stable” conditions across the Taiwan Strait.  For Xi Jinping, the warmth of the visit thinly veiled a message to Taiwan’s leaders and electorate, as well as to onlookers in Washington.  Chinese officials and media clearly link the talks and confirmation of the 1992 Consensus to “the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation”—a concept that is increasingly unpalatable to many in Taiwan.  Xi hopes to keep DPP presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen (and perhaps even future KMT leaders) in the 1992 Consensus “box” and to co-opt the U.S. in this effort, but perhaps underestimates the political transformation underway on Taiwan. 

​The Xi administration has also hardened its position regarding “core interests” such as Taiwan, embodied in a “bottom line principle” policy directive that eschews compromise.  Although many commentators and most officials across the region have shied away from stating that the PRC and Taiwan are at the crossroads of crisis, the collision of political transformation on Taiwan and the PRC’s “bottom line principle” will challenge the fragile foundations of peaceful cross-Strait co-existence.  Changes in the regional balance of military power brought about by a more muscular People’s Liberation Army compounds the potential for increased friction, providing Beijing with more credible options for coercion and deterrence.

This talk will consider the politics and principles involved in cross-Taiwan Strait relations in light of the upcoming 2016 Taiwan elections and the policies of the Xi Jinping administration; and will discuss some of the possible implications for China’s national security policy, regional stability, and the future of cross-Strait relations.
Bio
Mr. Cortez A. Cooper III joined RAND in April 2009, providing assessments of security challenges across political, military, economic, cultural, and informational arenas for a broad range of U.S. government clients.  Prior to joining RAND, Mr. Cooper was the Director of the East Asia Studies Center for Hicks and Associates, Inc.  He has also served in the U.S. Navy Executive Service as the Senior Analyst for the Joint Intelligence Center Pacific, U.S. Pacific Command.  As the senior intelligence analyst and Asia regional specialist in the Pacific Theater, he advised Pacific Command leadership on trends and developments in the Command’s area of responsibility.  Before his Hawaii assignment, Mr. Cooper was a Senior Analyst with CENTRA Technology, Inc., specializing in Asia-Pacific political-military affairs.  Mr. Cooper’s 20 years of military service included assignments as both an Army Signal Corps Officer and a China Foreign Area Officer.  In addition to numerous military decorations, the Secretary of Defense awarded Mr. Cooper with the Exceptional Civilian Service Award in 2001.
0 Comments

In Memoriam: Ramon H. Myers

11/24/2015

1 Comment

 
Picture
One of the major figures in East Asian Studies at Stanford, Ramon H. Myers, died this month after a long illness. He was 86.

Myers was the former curator of the East Asian Collection at the Hoover Institution, where he played a central role in acquiring new materials on Taiwan's post-war history, including a vast collection of documents from the KMT party archive in Taipei as well as the Chiang Kai-shek diaries.

He also wrote several influential books and articles on Taiwan. The best-known in Taiwan studies is probably The First Chinese Democracy: Political Life in the Republic of China on Taiwan (Johns Hopkins University Press, 1998, 2nd ed. 2002), with Linda Chao, but he also co-authored a history of the 2-28 Incident in 1947 and co-edited a widely-read volume on the Japanese pre-war colonial empire, among others. 

For those interested in a personal history of sorts, I recommend this interview conducted by Hsiao-ting Lin and Da-chi Liao in 2007, before he retired as curator. It gives a fascinating view into the practical challenges and opportunities and the intellectual cross-currents faced by his generation of East Asia scholars. I've excerpted a particularly interesting bit below:


...
Why did Hoover want to recruit you?
Good question!  The curator was a Chinese gentleman called Ma (馬).  His predecessor Eugene Wu had been in charge of the Yenching Library at Harvard.  Before him was Mary Wright.  I also took the name Ma (馬).  The first Ma was only at Hoover for 6 years, but he had a very serious problem with women.  Several of them went to Director Glenn Campbell and complained.  Campbell offered Ma the choice of resigning or being fired.  Campbell wanted a curator who was also a scholar and a fundraiser.  I did not know about all these internal developments until I had been here 2 years.  I applied to be a senior fellow, and the committee concurred. Finally, the President of Stanford University agreed.
 
Did you have connections with Taiwan then?
No.  That came 2 years later.  Wei Yong (魏鏞) had been a National Fellow at Hoover in 1974. But he left to take up a job in Chiang Ching-kuo’s cabinet.  Campbell and Wei Yong and also Yuan Li Wu (吳元黎) helped me to visit Taiwan. Richard Starr, who was Campbell’s deputy, suggested I take a couple of trips to Taiwan.  Based on these travels, I developed a friendship with many in the KMT. 
 
With Lee Teng-hui (李登輝)?
 I met him much earlier, when I went to Taiwan in 1959.  He was at the Nong Fu Hui (農復會) and Taida’s Agricultural Economics Department (台大農經系).  We were once at conferences together, and admired one another’s agricultural economic work, which was the focus of our dialogue.  When I went back on short 2-3 week trips to meet Taiwanese people, I developed an interest in the KMT, and began to learn about Taiwan; one thing led to another.  I wrote a book on the February 28 Incident (二二八事件) with two other Chinese scholars. Next visit was to go to the Sun Yat-sen University in Kaohsiung (中山大學) in 1982-83.
 
How did you know Qin Xiaoyi (秦孝儀)?
That was also accidental.  When Qin made his first visit to the US in 1984, he was invited to the Association for Asian Studies annual meeting in Chicago.  He wanted to come to Hoover or Stanford to get some publicity. I learned of his desire to visit Hoover before going to Chicago. So I arranged for Qin to come here. He gave a talk in the reading room of the East Asian Library. We had a huge audience for him to address.  He got a lot of publicity in the local newspaper about being invited to speak here.  He was very grateful and so he and Lee Huan (李煥) arranged for Edna (my wife) and me to go to the Sun Yat-sen University (中山大學).  Qin used his connection with Hoover to gain support from among the Chinese community.  This worked out very well for him and for us.  Then when I went out to Sun Yat-sen University, my ties with the KMT became closer.  I would say the Qin Xiaoyi’s trip in 1984 was very important.
 
Didn’t you know him before that?
I only had met him when he came to Hoover, and also two years later when Edna and I visited Kaohsiung. I also met Kuo Ta-chun (郭岱君), who came here on a grant from Institute of International Relations, National Cheng-chi University (政大國關中心). She came to Hoover and worked with me on a long article, which became a book on how to interpret Communist China.  We published it at the Hoover Press, and many people used it.  In the early 1980s, Western scholars were trying to re-evaluate the achievements of Chinese Communism, particularly Mao Zedong.  Our book was a comparison of how good the work of Taiwanese China-watchers compared with that of Europeans and America’s. I think we omitted the Japanese. We pointed out, quite credibly but controversially, that the Taiwanese Chinese-watchers were the best: they had met and were with Communist revolutionaries when they were doing underground spying. They had inside documents from intelligence sources far much better than we had.  They could make powerful arguments about CCP rule of China and interpret change.  Where they did best was interpreting how China was having a series of problems with the Communist system which proved that its problems were serious.

...
1 Comment

TDP Seminar: Jong-sung You on Nov. 11

11/9/2015

0 Comments

 
Picture
The Taiwan Democracy Project will hold its next seminar of the fall on November 11. The speaker is Jong-sung You, a senior lecturer in the Department of Political and Social Change at Australian National University, and he'll be speaking about  electoral campaign regulation in South Korea and Taiwan. The event is free and open to the public; you can register at the event page. The talk is entitled: "Liberal Taiwan versus Illiberal South Korea: The Divergent Paths of Electoral Campaign Regulation." Details are below.


Abstract
​Both South Korea and Taiwan are considered consolidated democracies, but the two countries have developed very different sets of electoral campaign regulations. While both countries had highly restrictive election laws during their authoritarian eras, they have diverged after democratic transition. South Korea still restricts campaigning activities, including banning door-to-door canvassing, prohibiting pre-official period campaigning, and restricting the quantity and content of literature. Taiwan has removed most campaigning restrictions, except for finance regulations. This study explores the causes of these divergent trajectories through comparative historical process tracing, using both archival and secondary sources.

​The preliminary findings suggest that the incumbency advantage and the containment of the leftist or opposition parties were the primary causes of regulation under the soft and hard authoritarian regimes of South Korea and Taiwan. The key difference was that the main opposition party as well as the ruling party in South Korea enjoyed the incumbency advantage but that opposition forces in Taiwan did not. As a result, the opposition in Taiwan fought for liberalization of campaign regulations, but that in South Korea did not. Democratization in Taiwan was accompanied by successive liberalizations in campaign regulation, but in South Korea the incumbent legislators affiliated with the ruling and opposition parties were both interested in limiting campaigning opportunities for electoral challengers.
Bio
Dr. Jong-sung You is a senior lecturer in the Department of Political and Social Change, Australian National University. His research interests include comparative politics and the political economy of inequality, corruption, social trust, and freedom of expression. He conducts both cross-national quantitative studies and qualitative case studies, focusing on Korea and East Asia. He recently published a book entitled Democracy, Inequality and Corruption: Korea, Taiwan and the Philippines Compared with Cambridge University Press. His publications have appeared at American Sociological Review, Political Psychology, Journal of East Asian Studies, Journal of Contemporary Asia, Asian Perspective, Trends and Prospects, and Korean Journal of International Studies. He obtained his Ph.D. in Public Policy from Harvard University and taught at UC San Diego. Before pursuing an academic career, he fought for democracy and social justice in South Korea.

0 Comments

The Ma-Xi Meeting: Long on Symbolism, Short on Substance

11/5/2015

0 Comments

 
Picture
Just about everyone with an interest in Taiwan has weighed in on the coming meeting between Ma Ying-jeou and Xi Jinping, abruptly announced on Tuesday. My own reaction: it's a big deal mostly for the symbolism, and there's not a lot of substance likely to come out of it. Thoughts in order:

1. This is not really about the 2016 elections in Taiwan. A lot of observers have suggested this is an attempt by President Ma and the KMT to influence the upcoming elections. I don’t think it is. The KMT is likely to lose the presidential election no matter what they do, in part because Ma Ying-jeou is a very unpopular incumbent. For the party to have a chance, the new KMT nominee Eric Chu needs to distance himself from Ma as much as possible. Ma’s meeting with Xi will knock Eric Chu off the front pages for a week and remind everyone that Ma Ying-jeou is still the president. I don’t see how that’s helpful to the KMT’s election chances.

2. This is a good thing for Taiwan's next leader. There's speculation that the meeting instead will serve to lock in the improvements in the cross-Strait relationship that have accrued under Ma, and somehow constrain Tsai Ing-wen's room to maneuver. Maybe, but I don't see how this will really harm a DPP president. Beijing is setting a precedent here for future meetings with whoever the directly elected leader of Taiwan is--note that Ma is meeting Xi as "Taiwan leader," not the chair of the KMT (a role he no longer holds), and the special emphasis on meeting as equals, right down to calling each other "Mr." and splitting the bill for the meal! That's a principle that adds to the legitimacy of the office of President of the Republic of China on Taiwan, and in turn makes it harder for Beijing to sustain the claim that a non-KMT president is illegitimate and that direct engagement is therefore inappropriate.  

3. This is less about Ma, and more about Xi. These kinds of events are often the result of years of diplomatic maneuvering. A meeting with Xi Jinping has been a goal of the Ma administration for several years. It would be a symbolically powerful capstone to his legacy of improving Taiwan’s ties with the PRC. In fact, it could have happened over a year ago at the 2014 APEC meeting in Beijing. From what I can tell, it didn’t because leaders in Beijing rejected the idea. For it to happen now suggests that something has changed on the PRC side of the relationship, not the Taiwan side. 

4. This is part of a larger diplomatic initiative by Xi. It’s useful to place this action by Beijing in a larger context. Xi Jinping recently completed a successful visit to the UK, and just last week premier Li Keqiang attended an important trilateral meeting with the leaders of South Korea and Japan in Seoul. Beijing also recently received a delegation from the Vatican. So the meeting with Ma fits into a larger pattern recent of conciliatory gestures by the Xi foreign policy team toward major players in the region and beyond. Again, it’s not as much about Ma as about what’s going on in Beijing.

5. The meeting will probably be long on symbolism, short on substance. The historical symbolism is striking, but the meeting is unlikely to have significant practical consequences. President Ma is not in a position to offer any meaningful concessions, and cannot credibly commit to any deals that might be struck, since he’d have to get them approved by the legislature, and he’ll be out of office in just a few months. The more important steps have already been taken: the leaders of the official agencies of the two sides—the Mainland Affairs Council in Taiwan, the Taiwan Affairs Office in Beijing--have already met in person before, and they communicate regularly. Under Ma, Beijing and Taipei have signed over 20 agreements to institutionalize aspects cross-Strait interactions. The fact that ordinary Taiwanese can get on a commercial flight in downtown Taipei and be in Shanghai in two hours is far more consequential than anything that is likely to come out of the meeting on November 7.  
0 Comments

    RSS Feed

    About Me

    I am a political scientist with research interests in democratization, elections and election management, parties and party system development, one-party dominance, and the links between domestic politics and external security issues. My regional expertise is in East Asia, with special focus on Taiwan.

    Archives

    March 2023
    February 2023
    January 2023
    December 2022
    November 2022
    October 2022
    September 2022
    August 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    March 2021
    February 2021
    December 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    September 2019
    August 2019
    November 2018
    August 2018
    June 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    October 2017
    August 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015
    September 2015
    July 2015
    June 2015
    May 2015
    March 2015
    February 2015
    January 2015
    November 2014
    October 2014
    September 2014
    August 2014
    July 2014
    May 2014
    April 2014
    March 2014
    February 2014
    January 2014
    December 2013
    November 2013
    October 2013
    September 2013

    Categories

    All
    1992 Elections
    2008 Elections
    2012 Elections
    2014 Elections
    2016 Elections
    2020 Elections
    2022 Elections
    Aacs
    Aborigines
    Alex Tsai
    Alicia Wang
    Annette Lu
    Announcements
    Apsa
    Apsa Cgots
    Arthur P Wolf
    Blog Meta
    Book Review
    Campaign Regulation
    CCP
    CDDRL
    CEC
    Chang Ching Chung
    Chang Chun Hsiung
    Chang Jung-wei
    Chang Li-shan
    Chang Ming-ta
    Chang Sho-wen
    Chen Che-nan
    Chen Chien-nian
    Chen Chi Mai
    Chen Chin-te
    Chen Ding-nan
    Chen Fu-hai
    Cheng Chao-fang
    Cheng Cheng-ling
    Cheng Pao-ching
    Chen Kuang-fu
    Chen Ming-wen
    Chen Ou-pu
    Chen Shih Chung
    Chen Shih-chung
    Chen Shui Bian
    Chen Tsang-chiang
    Chen Wan-hui
    Chen Wei-chung
    Chen Ying
    Chen Yu-chen
    Chiang Chi-chen
    Chiang Ching Kuo
    Chiang Jui-hsiung
    Chiang-kai-shek
    Chiang Tsung-yuan
    Chiang Wan-an
    Chin Hui Chu
    Chou Chiang-chieh
    Chou Chun-mi
    Chou Hui-huang
    Chuang Suo Hang
    Chung Chia-pin
    Chung Tung-chin
    Citizen 1985
    Civil Society
    Conferences
    Control Yuan
    Council Of Grand Justices
    Cross-party-negotiating-committee
    Cross Strait Relations
    CSSTA
    Defense Spending
    Developmental State
    Diplomacy
    Disinformation
    DPP
    DPP Policy Papers
    Eats
    Economic-voting
    Electoral Geography
    Electoral Reform
    Electoral Systems Wonkery
    Energy Policy
    Eric Chu
    Executive Yuan
    Fan Yun
    Fellowship
    Frank Hsieh
    Freddy Lim
    Frida Tsai
    Fu Kun-chi
    Germany
    Han Kuo Yu
    Han Kuo-yu
    Hau Lung Bin
    Hau Pei Tsun
    Henry Rowen
    Ho Kan-ming
    Hoover Institution
    Hou You Yi
    Hou You-yi
    Hsiao Bi Khim
    Hsiao Bi-khim
    Hsieh Fu-hung
    Hsieh Kuo-liang
    Hsieh Lung-chieh
    Hsieh Sam Chung
    Hsu Chen-wei
    Hsu Chih-jung
    Hsu Chung-hsin
    Hsu Hsin-ying
    Hsu Shu-hua
    Hsu Ting-chen
    Huang Hong-cheng
    Huang Kuo Chang
    Huang Kuo-chang
    Huang Min-hui
    Huang Shan Shan
    Huang Shan-shan
    Huang Shih Ming
    Huang Shiou-fang
    Huang Wei-che
    Huang Yung-chin
    Human Rights
    Hung Hsiu Chu
    Hung Tzu Yung
    Hung Tzu-yung
    Influence Operations
    In Memoriam
    Internship
    James Soong
    Japan
    Jiang Yi Huah
    Job Market
    John Chiang
    John Wu
    Journal Of Democracy
    Kao Hung-an
    Kawlo Iyun Pacidal
    Ker Chien Ming
    KMT
    Kmt History
    Ko Chih-en
    Kolas Yotaka
    Ko Wen Je
    Lai Ching-te
    Lai Feng-wei
    Lai Hsiang-ling
    Lee Chin-yung
    Lee Chun-yi
    Legal-wonkery
    Legislative Yuan
    Liang-kuo-shu
    Liang Su Jung
    Lien Chan
    Lii Wen
    Lin Chia-lung
    Lin Chih-chien
    Lin Fei-fan
    Lin Geng-ren
    Lin Hung Chih
    Lin Ming-chen
    Lin Tsung-hsien
    Lin Zi Miao
    Lin Zi-miao
    Liu Chao-hao
    Liu Cheng-ying
    Liu Chien-kuo
    Liu Kuo Tsai
    Lo Chih Cheng
    Lu Hsiu Yi
    Lu Shiow-yen
    Ma Vs Wang
    Ma Ying Jeou
    Media
    Media Freedom
    Min Kuo Tang
    Nationalism
    Natsa
    NCC
    New Power Party
    Nuclear Power
    Occupy LY
    Pingpuzu
    Political Economy
    Political Science
    PRC
    PTIP
    Publications
    Public Opinion
    Quality Of Democracy
    Ramon Myers
    Rao Ching-ling
    ROC Constitution
    Russia
    Saidai Tarovecahe
    Sean Lien
    Security Studies
    Shen Hui-hung
    Shen Lyu Shun
    Simon Chang
    Song Kuo-ting
    South Korea
    Speaker Series
    Stanford
    Statistics
    Street Protests
    Su Ching-chuan
    Su Huan-chih
    Su Jia Chyuan
    Su Jia-chyuan
    Sunflower Movement
    Su Tseng-chang
    Taiwanese Economy
    Taiwan Journal Of Democracy
    Taiwan People's Party
    Taiwan Rural Front
    Taiwan Solidary Union
    Taiwan Studies
    Taiwan World Congress
    Terry Gou
    Testimony
    The Diplomat
    This Week In Taiwan
    Ting Shou Chung
    Trade Relations
    Trans Pacific Partnership
    Tsai Chi-chang
    Tsai Ing Wen
    Tsai Shih-ying
    Tsao Chi-hung
    Tsao Er-yuan
    Tseng Yung Chuan
    Tzu Chi
    Ukraine
    United Nations
    Uscc
    US Taiwan NextGen
    Us Taiwan Relations
    V-dem
    Wang Chien-hsien
    Wang Chung-ming
    Wang Huei-mei
    Wang Jin Pyng
    Wang Mei-hui
    Wan Mei-ling
    Wei Yao Kan
    Wellington Koo
    Weng Chang-liang
    Wild Lily Movement
    Wilson Center
    Wu Den Yi
    Wu Yung Hsiung
    Xi Jinping
    Yang Cheng-wu
    Yang Shi-chiu
    Yang Wen-ke
    Yang Yao
    Yao Eng-chi
    Yao Wen-chih
    Yosi Takun
    You Si-kun
    Yu Shyi Kun

    RSS Feed

Powered by Create your own unique website with customizable templates.