Kharis Templeman
中文姓名:祁凱立
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4th World Congress of Taiwan Studies: June 27-29, 2022, in Seattle, WA

6/25/2022

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This coming week is the 4th World Congress of Taiwan Studies at the University of Washington, Seattle campus. WCTS is the seminal gathering of academics and practitioners working in the Taiwan studies field. The first meeting was in 2012 in Taipei at Academia Sinica, the second in 2015 in London, and the third also at Academia Sinica in 2018. This meeting has been delayed a year because of the COVID pandemic -- well worth the wait, however, because we actually get to do this in person. For many of us this will be the first time seeing each other in almost three years. 

How Democratic Is Taiwan? Evaluating 20 Years of Political Change

On Monday, June 27 I'm going to be presenting a new paper at the WCTS that attempts to evaluate the quality of democracy in Taiwan. The initial inspiration for this research was a talk that Larry Diamond gave in 2001, which provides a very useful snapshot of Taiwan's democratic strengths and weaknesses. Diamond highlighted five problem areas: 
  1. Political corruption and "black gold" (黑金) politics
  2. Weak rule of law, including insufficient judicial independence and professionalism and widespread distrust of the courts
  3. Growing partisan polarization, especially around national identity (Taiwanese vs Chinese) and ethnicity (benshengren vs waishengren)
  4. Constitutional defects, including ambiguity over whether Taiwan is a presidential or semi-presidential system, and a problematic electoral system (SNTV).
  5. Weak support for democratic values among the mass public. 
Twenty years later, it is fascinating to look back on this catalog of serious problems and consider how much things have changed, often in ways that are imperceptible or under-appreciated by Taiwanese themselves. In the paper, I make the case that Taiwan's political system has undergone significant improvements in all five of these areas. I won't repeat here the qualitative evidence -- see the paper for that -- but I will post a few figures that I found to be especially interesting.  
Comparative Indices
Here's the ranking and score for four prominent democracy indices used to rank overall quality of liberal democracy: 
  • Freedom House: Taiwan is 94/100, tied for 19th with Chile and Germany
  • Economist Intelligence Unit Democracy Index: 8.99/10, 8th. 
  • Bertelsmann Transformation Index, 9.60/10, 3rd (of 137 non-OECD countries)
  • Varieties of Democracy Liberal Democracy Index, 0.7/1, 32rd. 
All four of these score Taiwan as a full liberal democracy, and all four record improvements over the last decade. 

V-Dem is noticeably more negative than the other three on Taiwan (and much more positive on South Korea, for reasons that aren't clear to me.) So keep that in mind as we look at some of the V-Dem indicators below -- if there's systematic bias in the V-Dem estimates, they're probably too low rather than too high. 
Political Corruption and Black Gold Politics
Here's the Varieties of Democracy indicator for vote-buying, 1969-2021, which shows some real improvement after  2015. 
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And here's V-Dem's political corruption score over the same time period. Almost imperceptible changes up to 2014, followed by real declines in corruption. 
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Rule of Law
Here's V-Dem's Rule of Law index, 1980-2021. Roughly similar pattern, with some improvement starting 2015, although V-Dem is pretty positive on the rule of law even in 2001...

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Political Polarization
Finally, here's V-Dem's political polarization measure. The trend here is counter-intuitive -- it shows the Chen Shui-bian era as not particularly polarized, and significantly less than the previous Lee Teng-hui era, followed by a further decline in polarization until 2013, then significant increases since then. 

This looks weird to me -- I've long thought the CSB era was the peak for polarization, and that it has declined since then -- but that's what the data show. 

I've put two other countries on here for reference -- compared to South Korea and the United States, Taiwan doesn't look especially polarized at any point in the last 20 years. So despite the increases on this indicator in recent years, political polarization doesn't look like the fundamental threat to democracy that Diamond worried it might be back in 2001. 
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What's It All Mean?
The paper has a lot more, but summarizing: 
  • Comparative indices generally show Taiwan to be a high-quality liberal democracy, and one that has registered important improvements since 2015. 
  • Since 2001, Taiwan has made significant progress in Diamond's five problem areas. 
  • The remaining weaknesses -- e.g. media sensationalism, distrust of judiciary, "direct democracy" agenda gone haywire -- are not especially unique to Taiwan and don't (so far) threaten the integrity of the democratic system. 
  • The biggest threat to democracy in Taiwan now comes from the People's Republic of China across the Strait, including CCP-backed influence campaigns. 

Finally, this paper was inspired partly by accusations coming from some quarters in Taiwan that it is now an "illiberal democracy" or "electoral autocracy" under President Tsai Ing-wen and the ruling DPP. I wrote a blog post last December rebutting some of these accusations; this paper builds on the data and arguments there. The conclusion is the same: you really have to stretch to argue that Taiwan is in democratic decline. Most of the data point in the other direction: Taiwan's democratic system has addressed many of its most serious weaknesses since 2001, and even since 2015.  
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Taiwan Studies at APSA 2020: The Virtual Conference Line-Up

9/7/2020

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Welcome to the Golden State!
The American Political Science Association (APSA) annual conference was supposed to be in held in San Francisco this year, until COVID-19 hit. So, like everything else, it's moved online. That's probably just as well, because over the last month the Bay Area has turned into a post-apocalyptic hellscape of raging fires, record heat, and choking smoke. We've even broken some of the all-time temperature records that were set the last time APSA was in San Francisco, in 2017. Yay. At this rate it might be wise to put San Francisco (or anywhere in California, really) on the same repeat-offender list as New Orleans and never hold APSA here again. (Seattle has never looked better.) 

Anyway. It turns out we'll still have a strong lineup of Taiwan-related programming in the virtual conference. The Conference Group on Taiwan Studies (CGOTS) is sponsoring seven panels on Taiwan politics, spread out over four days (Thursday-Sunday, September 10-13, 2020). Details are at the CGOTS website, and reposted below. Note that you have to be registered for the conference to join the virtual sessions, but that they're otherwise open to all participants. If you'd like to see the latest Taiwan politics research, come check us out online.         

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Panel 1: Politics of Immigration and Progressive Issues in Taiwan         
Thu, Sep.10, 8:00 to 9:30am (MDT) [7:00-8:30am (PDT); 9:00-10:30am (CDT); 10:00-11:30am (EDT)]
Thu, Sep.10, 10:00-11:30pm (Taipei, GMT+8)

Chair: Shelley Rigger, Davidson College
Discussants: Wei-Ting Yen, Franklin and Marshall College
  1. The growing role of human rights issues in Taiwan’s presidential elections, Shu-An Tsai, SUNY Buffalo
  2. Toward a Greener Island: Court Decisions of Environmental Lawsuits in Taiwan, Chung-li Wu, Academia Sinica; Alex Min-Wei Lin, National Chengchi University
 
Panel 2: New Perspectives on the Elections and Voting: The Case of Taiwan 
Thu, Sep.10, 10:00 to 11:30am (MDT) [9:00-10:30am (PDT); 11:00am-12:30pm (CDT); 12:00-1:30pm (EDT)]
Fri, Sep.11, 12:00-1:30am (Taipei, GMT+8)

Chair: Christopher Achen, Princeton University
Discussants: Lu-Chung Dennis Weng, Sam Houston State University
  1. Dynastic Politics: Evidence from Local Elections in Taiwan, Nathan F. Batto, Academia Sinica; Benjamin L. Read, University of California, Santa Cruz
  2. Do Pro-Beijing Media Affect Voting? An Experiment from Taiwan's General Election, Jay Chieh Kao, University of Texas at Austin
 
Panel 3: Emerging Issues and Puzzles in Taiwanese Politics        
Fri, Sep.11, 8:00 to 9:30am (MDT) [7:00-8:30am (PDT); 9:00-10:30am (CDT); 10:00-11:30am (EDT)]
Fri, Sep.11, 10:00-11:30pm (Taipei, GMT+8)

Chair: Pei-te Lien, University of California, Santa Barbara
Discussants: Ching-Hsing Wang, National Cheng Kung University
  1. Social Inequality and Participation of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, Yi-Tzu Lin, University of South Carolina; Charles Chong-Han Wu, National Chengchi University
  2. Revisiting the Interplay Between Corruption Perception and Trust with Structural Equation Modeling: Unpacking the Mechanism​, Chilik Yu, Overseas Chinese University; Ting-An-Xu Liu, O'Neill School of Public and Environmental Affairs Indiana University Bloomington
 
Panel 4: Public Policy and Legislative Studies in Taiwan
Fri, Sep.11, 10:00 to 11:30am (MDT) [9:00-10:30am (PDT); 11:00am-12:30pm (CDT); 12:00-1:30pm (EDT)]
Sat, Sep.12, 12:00-1:30am (Taipei, GMT+8)

Chair: Karl Ho, University of Texas, Dallas
Discussants: Fang-Yu Chen, Michigan State University; Nick Lin, Academia Sinica
  1. Policy Diffusion of Financial Regulatory Sandbox : The Experience of Taiwan, Ping-Kuei Chen, National Chengchi University; *Cheng-Yun Tsang, National Chengchi University
  2. Public Policy Preferences Revealed in Referendum Voting: The Case of Taiwan, Chi Huang, National Chengchi University
 
Panel 5: Polarization and National Identity: The 2020 General Elections in Taiwan
Sat, Sep.12, 8:00 to 9:30am (MDT) [7:00-8:30am (PDT); 9:00-10:30am (CDT); 10:00-11:30am (EDT)]
Sat, Sep.12, 10:00-11:30pm (Taipei, GMT+8)

Chair: Yao-Yuan Yeh, University of St. Thomas
Discussants: Austin Horng-En Wang, University of Nevada, Las Vegas; Kharis Templeman, Stanford University
  1. Dehumanization and Polarization in the 2020 Taiwanese Presidential Election, Jung Chen, University of California, Merced; Chih-Cheng Meng, National Cheng Kung University
  2. Partisan Polarization and Fragmentation: Evidence from the 2020 Taiwan Elections, Caleb M. Clark, Auburn University; Karl Ho, University of Texas, Dallas; *Alexander C. Tan, University of Canterbury
  3. Is Defending Taiwan’s Democracy Spatial? Revisit Valence Voting in Taiwan, Lu-Chung Dennis Weng, Sam Houston State University
 
Panel 6: Social Media and its Political Impact in the Contemporary Taiwan
Sat, Sep.12, 10:00 to 11:30am (MDT) [9:00-10:30am (PDT); 11:00am-12:30pm (CDT); 12:00-1:30pm (EDT)]
Sun, Sep.13, 12:00-1:30am (Taipei, GMT+8)

Chair: Chung-li Wu, Academia Sinica
Discussants:  Yi-Chun Chien, National Chengchi University
  1. Political Returns to Facebook Ad Spending: Evidence from Taiwan, Jason Kuo, National Taiwan University
  2. A Comparative Analysis of Social Media Impacts on Hong Kong and Taiwan elections, Karl Ho, University of Texas, Dallas; Stan Hok-Wui Wong, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University; Harold D. Clarke, University of Texas at Dallas
  3. Media Literacy and the Political Convergence across Social Media Sites, *Austin Horng-En Wang, University of Nevada, Las Vegas; Howard Liu, Penn State University; *Yao-Yuan Yeh, University of St. Thomas; *Kuan-Sheng Wu, Purdue University; *Fang-Yu Chen, Michigan State University
 
Conference Group on Taiwan Studies Business Meeting
Sat, September 12, 7 to 8pm (MDT) [6-7pm (PDT); 8am-9pm (CDT); 9-10pm (EDT)]
Sun, September 13, 9-10am (Taipei, GMT+8)

Please contact Yao-Yuan Yeh at yehy@stthom.edu if you would like to acquire the meeting link.
 
Panel 7: Changes and Trends in Cross-Strait Relations between Taiwan and China 
Sun, Sep. 13, 8:00 to 9:30am (MDT) [7:00-8:30am (PDT); 9:00-10:30am (CDT); 10:00-11:30am (EDT)]
Sun, Sep.13, 10:00-11:30pm (Taipei, GMT+8)

Chair: Hans Stockton, University of St. Thomas
Discussants: Jason Kuo, National Taiwan University; Charles Chong-Han Wu, National Chengchi University
  1. Clinton, Bush, Obama, and Trump: How They Spoke about the Taiwan Strait, Dean Chen, Ramapo College of New Jersey; Yao-Yuan Yeh, University of St. Thomas
  2. Under Siege: Hong Kong’s Protests, Taiwan's Reactions, and China's Challenges, Wei-chin Lee, Wake Forest University
  3. COVID-19 and the Anatomy of Rally Effect: the Case of Taiwan, T.Y. Wang, Illinois State University
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Taiwan Studies at APSA 2019: Join Us in Washington, DC!

8/23/2019

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The Conference Group on Taiwan Studies is a Related Group of the American Political Science Association. For this year's annual conference in Washington, DC, CGOTS is sponsoring a full day of five  (yes, five!) special panels on Taiwanese politics, all on Friday, August 30, from 8:00am-5:30pm. We're very fortunate to have a terrific line-up of panels this year, enough for a full mini-conference of presentations on Taiwanese politics.

In addition, we encourage all CGOTS members to attend the Conference Group on Taiwan Studies Business Meeting, Friday, August 30, from 6:30-7:30pm. All panels and the Business Meeting will take place in the same location, the Washington Hilton, Fairchild East Room, and are open to all conference attendees. 

The full line-up of panels and presentations is listed below. 

 The 2019 CGOTS Schedule at APSA

8:00 AM – 9:30 AM, Friday, August 30. 2019 (Washington Hilton, Fairchild East) 
Panel Title: Reunderstanding Cross-Strait Relations: The Status Quo? The One-China Policy? 
Chair: Robert Sutter, George Washington University 
Discussants: Scott Kastner, the University of Maryland and Kuen-Da Lin, Georgia Institute of Technology 
  • "A Neo U.S. One-China Policy? Content Analyzing Obama’s and Trump’s Positions," Dean Chen, Ramapo College of New Jersey; Yao-Yuan Yeh, University of St. Thomas 
  • "The Polarization of Cross-Strait Relations since 2016: the Status Quo at Stake," S. Philip Hsu, National Taiwan University 
  • "The One China Policy and the International Status of Taiwan," Mikulas Fabry, Georgia Institute of Technology 
  • "Nationalism, Alliances, and Geopolitics: US-China-Taiwan Ties under Trump and Xi," Vincent Wei-cheng Wang, Adelphi University 

10:00 AM – 11:30 AM, Friday, August 30. 2019 (Washington Hilton, Fairchild East) 
Panel Title: New Theories and New Evidence: Studies of Turnout and Election in Taiwan 
Chair: Hans Stockton, University of St. Thomas 
Discussants: Timothy S. Rich, Western Kentucky University and Nick Lin, Academia Sinica 
  • "Declining Voter Turnout in Taiwan: A Generational Effect?," T.Y. Wang, Illinois State University Christopher H. Achen, Princeton University 
  • "Reverse Coattails Effects and Electoral Fortune in Taiwan’s Local Elections," Kuan-chen Lee, Academia Sinica Karl Ho, University of Texas, Dallas 
  • "Critical Citizens or Electoral Losers? A Panel Study of 2018 Taiwan’s Election," Hsin-hao Huang, National Taiwan Normal University 
  • "The Impact of Polling Primaries on Electoral Performance," Eric Chen-hua Yu, National Chengchi University 

12:00 PM – 1:30 PM, Friday, August 30. 2019 (Washington Hilton, Fairchild East) 
Panel Title: Public Opinion Research in Taiwan: Old Topics and New Angles 
Chair: Da-Chi Liao, National Sun Yat-sen University 
Discussants: Lu-Chung Dennis Weng, Sam Houston State University and Ching-Hsing Wang, National Cheng Kung University 
  • "Democratic Deficit in Taiwan? A Longitudinal Study of Corruption Perception," Chilik Yu, Shih Hsin University 
  • "Presidential Popularity in Taiwan: from Ma Ying-jou to Tsai Ing-wen," T.Y. Wang, Illinois State University; Su-Feng Cheng, National Chengchi University 
  • " 'Return' of Chinese Identity? Exploring Some Recent Developments," Shiau-chi Shen, Soochow University 
  • "Public Support for the Use of Force in Weak States," Kuan-Sheng Wu, Purdue University; Yao-Yuan Yeh, University of St. Thomas Fang-Yu Chen, Michigan State University; Austin Horng-En Wang, Duke University 

2:00 PM – 3:30 PM, Friday, August 30. 2019 (Washington Hilton, Fairchild East) 
Panel Title: Legislative Politics and Emerging Social Issues in Taiwan 
Chair: David An, Catholic University of America/Global Taiwan Institute 
Discussants: Wei-ting Yen, Franklin and Marshall College and Fang-Yu Chen, Michigan State University
  • "Election Cycle and Roll Call Requests: Identifying the Target Audience," Weihao Huang, Academia Sinica Greg Chih-Hsin Sheen, London School of Economics and Political Science 
  • "Electoral Rules, Party Discipline, and Parliamentary Questions in Taiwan," Nick Lin, Academia Sinica; Jinhyeok Jang, National Sun Yat-sen University 
  • "Unpacking LGBT Acceptance in Taiwan: What Explains Taiwan’s Public Support?" Timothy S. Rich, Western Kentucky; University Isabel Eliassen, Western Kentucky University 
  • "Court as Political Evasion: The Case of Interpretation No. 748 in Taiwan," Yu-Hsien Sung, University of South Carolina; Chin-shou Wang, National Cheng Kung University 

4:00 PM – 5:30 PM, Friday, August 30. 2019 (Washington Hilton, Fairchild East) 
Panel Title: Social Media, Big Data Analysis, and Electoral Politics in Taiwan 
Chair: Christopher H. Achen, Princeton University 
Discussants: Eric Chen-hua Yu, National Chengchi University and T.Y. Wang, Illinois State University 
  • "How Connective Populism Was Made Online--A Case Study of the Han Tide in 2018," Da-Chi Liao, National Sun Yat-sen University; Frank Liu, National Sun Yat-Sen University 
  • "Social Media and Voter Turnout: Evidence from Taiwan," Chia-hung Tsai, National Chengchi University; Ching-Hsing Wang, National Cheng Kung University 
  • "The Effect of Social Media on Vote Choice: The Case of Taiwan," Lu-Chung Dennis Weng, Sam Houston State University; Chi Huang, National Chengchi University 
  • "The Interaction between Politician and Netizens in Facebook: A Big Data Approach," Yu-Wei Hu, Chinese culture University; Jung Chun Chang, SOAS, University of London 

6:30 PM – 7:30 PM, Friday, August 30. 2019 (Washington Hilton, Fairchild East) 

Conference Group on Taiwan Studies (CGOTS) Business Meeting 
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Taiwan Studies at APSA 2018: Join Us in Boston!

8/23/2018

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​Cross-posted from the Conference Group on Taiwan Studies website

The Conference Group on Taiwan Studies is a Related Group of the American Political Science Association. For this year's annual conference in Boston, CGOTS is sponsoring three special panels on Taiwanese politics.
 In addition, we encourage all APSA attendees to drop by the Conference Group on Taiwan Studies reception, Thursday, August 30, from 7:30-9:00pm in Marriott Salon K. Free (!!!) drinks and hors d'oeuvres will be served.   

All CGOTS members are also invited to attend our annual business meeting, to be held right before the reception from 6:30-7:30, next door in Marriott Salon J. We'll go over budget and membership numbers and nominate the new CGOTS leadership team. 

Please also check out the three official CGOTS panels, as well as other Taiwan-related presentations at the conference; details and a schedule can be found at the CGOTS website. 
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APSA 2017 Mini-Conference: Electoral Malpractice in East and Southeast Asia

8/7/2017

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PictureThe Westin St. Francis San Francisco, with Union Square in the foreground.
The 2017 American Political Science Association annual conference will be held in San Francisco, CA, from August 31-September 3, 2017. One of the new formats that APSA introduced last year is a "mini-conference"--that is, a day-long set of panels that share a related theme and set of questions, considered in a more flexible format than the standard, rigid APSA section panels. 

This year I have had the privilege, with Netina Tan of McMaster University, to organize a mini-conference on electoral malpractice in East and Southeast Asia. The event will run all day Saturday, September 2, and is open to all registered APSA conference attendees. The full schedule of panels is below. 

Venue: Westin San Francisco, California Room West
Date: Saturday, September 2, 8:00am-5:30pm
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8:00am-9:30am          Panel 1: Comparative Perspectives and Methodological Issues
  1. Welcome (Netina Tan, McMaster University and Kharis Templeman, Stanford University)
  2. Keynote: “Electoral Integrity and Democratic Practices in Asia” (Larry Diamond, Stanford University)
  3. “Methodological Challenges in the study of Electoral Malpractice” (Carolien Van Ham, University of New South Wales)
Chair: Allen Hicken (University of Michigan)
Discussant: Allen Hicken (University of Michigan) 

9:30am-11:00am      Panel 2: Types of Electoral Malpractice
  1. “Drivers of Pre-Electoral Manipulations in the 2013 Cambodian Election” (Max Groemping, University of Sydney)
  2. “Pre-Electoral Malpractice in Single-Party Dominant Malaysia” (Kai Ostwald, University of British Columbia)
  3. “Electoral Malpractice in Myanmar: A Comparison of the 2010 and 2015 Elections” (Marco Bünte, Monash University, Malaysia)
  4. “The Use and Abuse of Electoral Rules to Manipulate Election Outcomes in Thailand” (Joel Selway, Brigham Young University)
Chair: Larry Diamond (Stanford University)
Discussant: Jorgen Elklit (Aarhus University)

11:00-11:15pm           Break 

11:15pm-12:45pm      Panel 3: Effects of Electoral Malpractice  
  1. “Gerrymandering and Malapportionment in Singapore” (Netina Tan, McMaster University)
  2. “Voting for the Incumbent in Single Party Regimes: Fear or Conviction?” (Guillem Riambau, Yale-NUS and Kai Ostwald, University of British Columbia)
  3. “Voting in the Dark: How Vietnamese Voters Negotiate Low Information Elections” (Paul Schuler, University of Arizona)
  4. “Silent Manipulation: Effects of Polling Place Distance on Voting Behavior in Hong Kong’s Electoral Autocracy” (Stan Hok-Wui Wong, the Hong Kong Polytechnic University)
Chair: Kenneth McElwain (University of Tokyo)
Discussant: Meredith Weiss (University at Albany, Suny)

12:45pm-2:00pm    Lunch Break

2:00pm-3:30pm          Panel 4: Sources of Electoral Integrity   
  1. “Sources of Electoral Integrity: Reforming the Central Election Commission in Taiwan” (Kharis Templeman, Stanford University)
  2. “Violations of Electoral Integrity in the Myanmar 2015 Election” (Elin Bjarnegard, Uppsala University)
  3. “Free and/or Fair? How Japanese Courts Rule on Election Campaign Regulations” (Kenneth Mori McElwain, Tokyo University)
  4. “Restricting free speech in the name of fairness: Campaign regulation in South Korea” (You Jong-Sung, Australian National University)
Chair:  Jorgen Elklit (Aarhus University)
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Discussant: Allen Hicken (University of Michigan)  

3:30-3:45pm              Break 

3:45-5:00pm               Panel 5: Challenges of Electoral Reforms 
  1. “Challenges of Electoral Reforms and Engineering in Mongolia” (Michael Seeberg, University of Southern Denmark)
  2. “The Menu of Manipulation: Reform and Malpractice in Contemporary Indonesian Elections” (Sarah Shair Rosenfield, Arizona State University)
  3. “The Decline of the Effectiveness of Vote-Buying as Electoral Mobilization Strategy in Taiwan” (Wang Chin-Shou, National Cheng Kung University)
  4. “Using Election Forensics to Detect Fraud and Strategic Behavior in the Philippines” (Allen Hicken, University of Michigan)
Chair: Guillem Riambau (Yale-NUS)
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Discussant: Carolien Van Ham (University of New South Wales)

5:00pm-5:30pm          Panel 6: Roundtable  Discussion 
  1. Comparative Regional Implications, Publications and Steps Forward (Netina Tan, McMaster University and Kharis Templeman, Stanford University)
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APSA 2016 Annual Conference in Philadelphia: Taiwan Panels

8/28/2016

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​The 2016 American Political Science Association Annual Conference will be this week, from Thursday, September 1 through Sunday, September 4, in Philadelphia, PA. There's over a dozen panels planned with Taiwan-related content. For those interested, I've listed below all the presentations I could find in the conference program. 

Conference Group on Taiwan Studies (CGOTS) Official Panels

​First and foremost, the Conference Group on Taiwan Studies has two special panels this year, one on domestic politics and one on foreign relations. We strongly encourage anyone with even a passing interest in Taiwan studies to attend at least one panel (and bring your friends!)--our ability to retain a special conference group on Taiwan is contingent on good turnout at these organized events, and we take attendance to help make our case to APSA. The panels are:
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SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 3, 2:00-3:30pm 
Marriott Rm 414
CGOTS PANEL 1: Preferences, Identity, and Taiwan's 2016 Election

This panel discusses and examines how democratic consolidation and the changing domestic political preferences, identity, and social cleavages have shaped Taiwan's 2016 election.

Chair: Da-chi Liao, National Sun Yat-sen University
  • "Coattail and Reverse Coattail Effects: The Case of Taiwan's 2016 Election," Chi Huang and Kaw-yew Lim, National Cheng Chi University
  • "Legislative Co-sponsorship Networks in Taiwan," Jinhyeok Jang, University of Louisville
  • "Political Cleavage in Taiwan: Is There a Shift?," T.Y. Wang, Illinois State University, and Su-feng Cheng, National Cheng Chi University
  • "The Legal Complex in Taiwan's Democratization," Chin-shou Wang, National Cheng Kung University
  • "The Psychological Cognition and Vote Choices in Taiwan," Chung-li Wu and Hsiao-chien Tsui, Academia Sinica.
Discussants: Dennis Weng, SUNY Cortland; Kharis Templeman, Stanford University

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 4, 10:00-11:30am 
Marriott Rm 414
CGOTS PANEL 2: Cross-Strait Relations and Economic Integration

This panel discusses and examines cross-strait ties in the wake of Taiwan's 2016 elections and the implications for Taiwan's economic integration policy.

Chair: Shelley Rigger, Davidson College
  • "China's Foreign Policy Transformation: Implications for Cross-Strait Relations," Nien-chung Chang Liao, Academia Sinica
  • "Cross-Strait Relations in the Aftermath of Taiwan's 2016 Elections," John Fuh-sheng Hsieh, University of South Carolina
  • "Prospect of the TPP under the Scope of Taiwan's Party Realignment," Rou-lan Chen, National Sun Yat-sen University
  • "Reconciliation without Convergence?: Theorizing Taiwan-China Relations," Vincent Wei-cheng Wang, Ithaca College
  • "When Frictions Do Not Cause Rift: Explaining Ambiguity in Alliance Management," Ping-kuei Chen, University of Maryland
Discussants: Dennis Hickey, Missouri State University; Hans Stockton, University of St. Thomas

CGOTS will also hold its reception Saturday evening from 6:30-8pm in Marriott Rm 411, and its business meeting right after, from 8-9pm, in Marriott Rm 410. 

Other Panels with Taiwan-Related Presentations

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 1
8:00-9:30am 
Marriott Franklin 2

Deterrence and Coercion
  • "Nuclear Deterrence Theory in Asia: Ideational Beliefs and Nuclear Strategy," James Turner Simpson, Boston University

2:00-3:30pm
PCC 108-B

Complexity, Process and Disruption: Political Theory under Pressure
  • "Secularism beyond Christian Political Theology: Thinking from Taiwan and China," Leigh K. Jenco, London School of Economics
FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 2
8:00-9:30am 
Marriott Franklin 5

Beijing, Taipei, Tokyo: East Asian Security Relations
  • "Why Underbalancing?: Nation Building and Taiwan's Rapprochement toward China," Dean Chen, Ramapo College
  • "Difficult but Necessary: Changing the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship," Eric Gomez, Cato Institute

PCC 109-AB
The Role of Elections in Regime Transitions
  • "Don't Call It a Comeback: Autocratic Successor Parties and Democratization," Michael K. Miller, George Washington University

10:00-11:30am
PCC 103-A
Exchange Rate Politics
  • "Exchange Rate Policy and Policy Diffusion: The Case of South Korea and Taiwan," Hyunsook Moon-Chen, UC Santa Barbara

PCC 113-B
​Courts as Catalysts of Policy Change: Comparative Perspectives ​
  • ​"Who Judges?: Introducing Jury Systems in Industrialized Democracies," Rieko Kage, University of Tokyo

12:00-1:30pm
PCC 203-A
Employing Migrants: Multiple Perspectives
  • "Comparing Migrant Care Worker Policies in Taiwan and South Korea," Yi-chun Chien, University of Toronto

Marriott, Franklin 2
Sources of Regime Durability and Transformation in China
  • "Strength without Confidence in Authoritarian China," Dan Slater, University of Chicago, and Joseph Wong, University of Toronto

2:00-3:30 
Marriott Salon C
Vote Choices, Ideology, and Political Parties
  • "Heterogeneous Anchoring of Extreme Candidate on Voter’s Perception of Mainstream," Austin Horng-en Wang, Duke University

4:00-5:30pm 
Marriott Rm 303
Cooperation and Conflict within Legislatures
  • "Parliamentary Brawls and Reelection in Taiwan," Nathan Batto, Academia Sinica

PCC 103-B
Public Support for Trade Policy
  • "What Do Voters Learn from Foreign News?: Experimental Evidence on PTA Diffusion," Megumi Naoi and Jason Kuo, UC San Diego
SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 3
8:00-9:30am 
Marriott Rm 414

Competing Interests and Paradigms in East Asian Political Economy
  • "The Changing Role of Taiwanese Investors in the PRC and Southeast Asia," Shelley Rigger, Davidson College
  • "Will International Law Change Taiwan's East China Sea Policy after 2016?" Chi-ting Tsai, National Taiwan University

Loews, Commonwealth A1
Migration and the Migration Crisis Today: Policies, Experiences, Impact
  • "Migrant Workers vs. Brides: The Care Crisis in Southern Europe and East Asia," Tiziana Caponio, University of Turin and Collegio Carlo Alberto, and Margarita Estevez-Abe, Syracuse University

Marriott, Franklin 8
Transformations in Asian Security: Multiple Challenges for the 21st Century
  • "Inadvertent Escalation in East Asia: Strategic Implications of Joint Access and Maneuver," William J. Norris, Texas A&M University

10:00-11:30am 
Marriott Rm 412
Contextualizing Race Narratives in Asian American Political Activism
  • "Politics & Preferences of New Americans: Chinese Americans on Affirmative Action," Jeanette Y. Harvey, CSU Los Angeles, and Pei-te Lien, UC Santa Barbara

12:00-1:30pm
Marriott Rm 414

Conceptualizing Difference
  • "Transformations of Taiwanese People's State Identity," Frank Liu, National Sun Yat-sen University

PCC 201-C
Corruption and Corruption Control in the Asia-Pacific Region
  • "Collective Action Problems for Principals, Agents, and Clients in Corruption," Jong-sung You, Australia National University

Marriott, Franklin 3
Popular Support for Authoritarian Regimes
  • "The Frequency and Success of Authoritarian Successor Parties Worldwide," James Loxton, University of Sydney

2:00-3:30pm 
PCC 111-B

​The Political Logic(s) of Anti-Corruption Campaigns in Asia
  • "Disappointed by Design?: Media Bias in Anti-Corruption Reporting in Taiwan," Christian Goebel, University of Vienna

4:00-5:30pm
​Marriot Rm 412

​Conflict and Cooperation: State and Society in Contemporary China
  • "Close Encounters of the First Time: Tourist Peace in the Cross-Strait Relations," Hsin-hsin Pan, and Yu-tzung Chang, National Taiwan University, and Wen-chin Wu, Academia Sinica

Marriott, Franklin 5
China and Its Neighbors: Regional Diplomacy and China's Foreign Policy Choices
  • "Private Diplomacy, Tacit Understandings, and Lessons from China's Rapprochement," Dalton Lin, Georgia Institute of Technology
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George Washington University Roundtable on Taiwan Elections

12/9/2015

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I had the privilege yesterday of joining a two-panel roundtable session at George Washington University's Sigur Center for Asian Studies on the probable outcome and impacts of the upcoming Taiwan elections. Thanks to all who came to the event and asked great questions, and to Bruce Dickson for the invitation to participate.

I've gotten a couple requests for the slides from my presentation; they're linked here.

​The short version of the talk: reform of the Legislative Yuan should be at the top of the priority list for the next president. Outside of Taiwan, the potential twists and turns in cross-Strait relations dominate the conversation and tend to overshadow everything else happening in the domestic arena. But there are a lot of problems facing Taiwan right now that don't directly involve cross-Strait relations.

The incoming administration will face several daunting domestic policy challenges, including:
  • a low tax base combined with a highly uneven distribution of the tax burden;
  • widespread unhappiness with the Ma administration's China-first economic strategy, but no consensus about what to do instead, and long-standing opposition in the legislature to the kinds of domestic reforms required to enter the Trans-Pacific Partnership;
  • a declining defense budget, now at 2% of GDP, and rising personnel costs from the faltering transition to an all-volunteer military force;
  • a potential energy crisis driven by rising opposition to nuclear power without development of realistic alternatives. 

Whatever the next administration tries to do, it will face opposition from some corners of the legislature representing vested interests that would lose out under reforms. Under the Legislative Yuan Speaker Wang Jin-pyng, the LY's cross-party negotiation mechanism has in practice given any party caucus--even one with just three members--the ability to block most legislation. So the current system will prevent major changes on any of these issues unless Speaker Wang is replaced and the negotiation mechanism is weakened or abolished. 

If the DPP wins a majority in the legislature, it will have a golden opportunity to reform the party caucus system and make it easier to pass legislation with a simple majority vote. It's critical for their own political future, for Tsai Ing-wen's, and probably for Taiwan's, that they do.​
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Annual Conference on Taiwan Democracy at Stanford, Oct. 26-27

10/24/2015

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The Taiwan Democracy Project is holding its annual conference this Monday and Tuesday, Oct. 26-27, at Stanford. The event is open to the public; you can register and find more details here.  The conference description is below.

Taiwan's Democracy at a Crossroads: Options and Prospects for Constitutional Reform 
These are unsettled times in Taiwanese politics. In recent months, prominent voices from across the spectrum have called for fundamental changes to the structure of Taiwan’s political system, ranging from simple reforms such as lowering the voting age to 18 to fundamental ones such as adopting a full presidential or parliamentary regime.
 
The impetus for constitutional reform has multiple sources. But at its core is a deeply problematic relationship between the executive and the legislature. When different parties controlled the two branches during the final years of the Chen Shui-bian administration, cooperation came to a standstill and governance suffered.  
 
More surprisingly, executive-legislative confrontation returned with a vengeance in President Ma Ying-jeou’s second term, even though the ruling Kuomintang (KMT) held both the executive and a majority in the legislature. The prolonged struggle over cross-Strait agreements is only the most prominent of a series of political conflicts that have blocked the adoption of new policies and threatened the legitimacy of those that do pass. And it is not clear that the next administration and legislature will fare any better than previous ones.
 
For the 10th Annual Conference on Taiwan Democracy, we will consider proposals for reforms in the context of the strengths and weaknesses of Taiwan’s current constitutional structure. Among the topics to be considered at the conference are:

  1. Diagnosing the problems: What have been the sources and implications of political strife in Taiwan in recent years, both under divided and unified one-party control? What reforms, if any, might make these conflicts easier to resolve and increase the legitimacy of government policy-making?
  2. Executive type: Would switching to a different type of executive—presidential, parliamentary, or another form of semi-presidentialism—mitigate some of the disadvantages of Taiwan’s current system? 
  3. Electoral systems: What are the problems with Taiwan’s current electoral system? What changes might mitigate some of the disadvantages?
  4. Direct democracy: What functions do Taiwan’s referendum and recall laws serve in practice? How would changes to these laws affect Taiwan’s democracy? 
  5. Accountability institutions: How have Taiwan’s judiciary, Control Yuan, and prosecutorial agencies performed during periods of partisan conflict between the executive and legislative branches? How might their effectiveness be improved?
  6. Comparative perspectives: How does Taiwan’s recent experience with divided government and institutional reform compare to other Third Wave democracies in the region (e.g. South Korea, SE Asia) and more broadly (e.g. Latin America, Eastern Europe)? 

​Conference participants will help to develop a set of recommendations for a non-partisan reform agenda for Taiwan, one that is informed by a clear understanding of both the most pressing challenges facing Taiwan’s democracy and of best practices in other successful young democracies. 
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June 2: Live Videoconference with President Ma Ying-jeou

6/1/2015

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In what is becoming an annual tradition, our program is hosting a videoconference with President Ma Ying-jeou tomorrow, June 2nd, 2015. This year we'll be live, with a panel of Stanford faculty and fellows to engage with President Ma via the video link. We'll be joined by the Taiwanese ambassador, Shen Lyu-shun, and a delegation from Washington D.C. The speech and the following Q&A will be broadcast at several other locations around the country as well. Details and the link to the official event page are below. 

杯弓蛇影. A short note on the timing of this event: I've seen claims in the Taiwanese media and heard privately of suspicions that President Ma's speech at Stanford was planned to coincide with Tsai Ing-wen's trip to the United States, perhaps as a way to overshadow her visit. I understand that it is tempting to see some kind of nefarious influence at work in the timing here. But the real reason is a lot more mundane: June 2nd was when we could get a conference room large and tech'ed-up enough for this event, and that still worked for all the participants. The date was set long before Dr. Tsai's itinerary was finalized and publicly announced, and it certainly wasn't pre-determined in Taipei. Given the conspiracy theory fever that grips much political reporting in Taiwan, it was probably inevitable that somebody would conclude otherwise. But in this case, they're just wrong.


On June 2, the Taiwan Democracy Project will host a special panel session featuring the President of the Republic of China (Taiwan), Ma Ying-jeou. President Ma will speak via live video feed to commemorate the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II and the long history of the U.S.-R.O.C. relationship, and to comment on his just-announced South China Sea Peace Initiative. Following his prepared remarks, the president will engage in a question-and-answer session with the audience and a distinguished panel of leading Stanford faculty and fellows, chaired and moderated by the former Secretary of Defense of the United States, William J. Perry. The live panel will take place in the Bechtel Conference Room of the Freeman Spogli Institute at Stanford University, in Encina Hall, 616 Serra Street, from 5:45-7:00pm. An informal reception in the lobby of Encina Hall will follow.


This event is co-sponsored with the Taipei Economic and Cultural Office, San Francisco; and the Office of the President of the Republic of China (Taiwan). It is free and open to the public. RSVP is required at the event page, here. 
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Call for Papers: American Association of Chinese Studies Annual Conference

3/19/2015

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I pass along this call for papers to the AACS annual conference, set for October 9-11, 2015, in Houston, Texas. Despite the name, this conference has a strong Taiwan focus--roughly 1/3 of all panels feature  Taiwan in some way, making it one of the larger annual gatherings in the United States for people working in Taiwan Studies. Last year's program is here.  Details for how to submit a paper are below.

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The American Association for Chinese Studies (AACS) annual conference program committee invites proposals for panels, roundtables, and papers concerning China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and the Chinese diaspora for the 57th Annual Conference, hosted by the University of St. Thomas (Houston, TX) at the Crowne Plaza Hotel in Houston, TX on October 9-11, 2015. The AACS seeks to construct a balanced program, including panels representing the humanities, social sciences, communication studies, education, and business-related disciplines.

The AACS is an interdisciplinary association devoted to the study of China broadly defined (http://aacs.ccny.cuny.edu/homepage.htm). Submissions from all disciplines are welcome. Membership in AACS is required for participation in the annual conference, and non-members are welcome to submit proposals, join the Association and participate in the annual conference. We encourage submissions from graduate students, junior and senior scholars, and overseas participants.

The program committee prefers proposals for complete panels (a chair, 2-3 papers, and a discussant) and roundtables (a chair and 3-4 other participants). The committee also welcomes proposals for individual papers and will attempt to place them on appropriate panels. Panels and roundtables concerning special events or topics of broad significance are welcome.

The program committee consists of Hans Stockton (University of St. Thomas), Chiung-Fang Chang (Lamar University), and June Teufel Dreyer (University of Miami). Proposals should include the names and roles of panel/roundtable participants, contact information, paper topics and short abstracts (not to exceed 250 words). Please send your proposal by e-mail to the program chair, Hans Stockton, at stockton@stthom.edu. Include complete contact information (address, telephone number, and e-mail) for all participants. The deadline for panel proposals is April 1, 2014, and the deadline for paper proposals is May 1, 2014. Scholars submitting proposals by the deadline will be notified of their inclusion in the program by May 30, 2014.


The AACS views panelist registration and attendance as a serious professional obligation.  Panelists must register for the AACS 2015 conference before September 21, 2015 or be excluded from the printed program.  


If you have any questions about the AACS, please send them to us at aacs@mail.com.  
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    About Me

    I am a political scientist with research interests in democratization, elections and election management, parties and party system development, one-party dominance, and the links between domestic politics and external security issues. My regional expertise is in East Asia, with special focus on Taiwan.

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