Kharis Templeman (祁凱立)
中文姓名:祁凱立
  • Home
  • Research
  • Teaching
  • CV
  • Blog
  • Taiwan Studies Resources

2016 Legislative Election Redux: Were "Third Force" Candidates Different from the DPP?

9/16/2016

0 Comments

 
Picture
NPP candidates ran close to Tsai Ing-wen in the district races. Other non-DPP candidates, not so much.

​One of the more interesting developments in Taiwan's 2016 general election was the rise of so-called  "Third Force" parties--completely new entrants into the political system, rather than break-aways from the KMT or the DPP.  While some of the media commentary got a bit carried away about the significance of these new parties, the founding of one, the New Power Party (NPP), did pose a serious threat to the DPP's chances of winning a majority in the legislature. As an offshoot of the Sunflower Movement, the NPP positioned its message in a way calculated to appeal to pan-green voters, and it recruited high-profile candidates to run in district races, not just the party list. These district candidates had the potential to split the pan-green vote in what everyone expected would be a very anti-KMT year, and in a worst-case scenario for their side, help the KMT hold on to their legislative majority. 

In the end, a pan-green split didn't happen. A key reason is that the DPP headed off the threat early: the party formed a kind of pre-electoral coalition by yielding 11 districts to the NPP and other non-DPP candidates in exchange for their support not to run against DPP candidates elsewhere. And the districts that the DPP yielded were, with one exception, far past the critical 57th seat needed to deliver a legislative majority. It turned out to be a good deal for the DPP, which won 68 seats overall. It also, more surprisingly, turned out well for the NPP, which won all three district seats and five overall and became the third largest party in the LY. 
The NPP Surprise
My own expectation going into the election was that the NPP candidates would perform worse, on average, than a generic DPP challenger. (In fact, if you read that linked post closely, I was even more specific: 2-4 points worse, on average.) The rationale was pretty simple: Freddy Lim, Hung Tzu-yung, and Huang Kuo-chang were already household names, but their close association with the Sunflower Movement, and the acerbic rhetoric of Huang, especially, suggested they would be fairly polarizing as candidates. And in the traditionally blue-leaning districts of Taipei 5 (Lim) and New Taipei 12 (Huang), I thought they would turn off more voters than they attracted with that approach. 

So what actually happened? In the graph above, I've plotted the vote share of each DPP and DPP-endorsed district candidate against Tsai Ing-wen's share of the presidential vote in the same district. DPP incumbents are represented by solid dots; challengers (i.e. non-incumbents) by hollow ones; NPP candidates by hollow squares, and other non-DPP candidates by hollow triangles. (A hearty thank you to Frozen Garlic for doing the yeoman's work of sorting the presidential race vote totals by LY district and making these data publicly available.)

Thoughts on this below the break. 
Even at a glance at the graph, we can see three things:
  1. The NPP challengers did better than the other non-DPP candidates. All three* ran close to the presidential ticket: Hung ended up short of Tsai's district vote-share by 2.6%, Lim by 3.9%, and Huang by only 1.6%. To put this in perspective, across the entire set of DPP and DPP-endorsed candidates, the average deficit was 3.2%. (*Note that the fourth NPP candidate,  Chiu Hsien-chih in Hsinchu City, isn't included here because he wasn't endorsed by the DPP, although he still ran a campaign against the DPP nominee Ker Chien-ming.)
  2. The non-DPP, non-NPP challengers were not great, Bob. These included high-profile candidates like Huang Shan-shan (黃珊珊) of the PFP in Taipei 4, Fan Yun (范雲) of the Social Democratic Party in Taipei 6, and  Liu Kuo-lung (劉國隆) of the TSU in Taichung 5, all of whom ran over 11% behind Tsai! In fact, Tsai won a majority of the vote in both Taipei 4 and Taichung 5, so these were  winnable races for the DPP with the right candidate. Ultimately, the DPP may have left some seats on the table by yielding these districts to small parties and independents, although in the larger scheme of things it was still probably worth it--after all, the party still won a majority!   
  3. The DPP legislators collectively enjoyed a significant incumbent advantage in 2016. Look at the incumbents versus the challengers. The average vote share for a DPP incumbent was actually 0.7% greater than Tsai's share in the district. The challengers, by contrast, really lagged--a full 5.4% behind the presidential ticket. A lot of them still won, but this graph suggests they won mostly because of the shift in party vote in the district, not because of any special appeal or personal characteristics they might have had. A key electoral concern for the DPP going forward is going to be the degree to which their first-term legislators can build up an incumbent advantage that enables them to run closer to, or even in front of, the presidential ticket, like most of the 2016 incumbents did. The party's ability to hold onto its majority in 2020 may well depend on the answer. 

So, contrary to my expectations, New Power Party district candidates not only did better than other non-DPP candidates who were part of the DPP's coalition, they may even have outperformed the average DPP challenger. 
Picture
Crunching the Numbers
Let's go a couple steps further now. First, a bit about the two obvious outliers in the graph above, which I've now labeled: Taitung and Hualien. There's a simple reason these are so far above Tsai's vote share: I've been ignoring the fact that a significant share of the electorate in both of these counties is indigenous, and therefore votes in one of the aborigine constituencies, not the geographic LY district. Since aborigine voters are on the whole much more blue than the electorate as a whole, that means this graph overstates how much DPP candidates in heavily indigenous areas are out-performing the presidential ticket. For a quick and dirty fix, I'm just going to drop Taitung and Hualien from the following analysis. (This is really crude, but it'll do for now.)

Now, let's look at how DPP LY vote share is related to DPP vs NPP nomination, controlling for incumbency advantage and Tsai's district vote share. (Again, very basic linear regression model--no need to do anything fancier here.) Here are the coefficient estimates: 
Picture
The baseline here is the vote share for a non-DPP, non-NPP candidate, who by this estimate would get about 84% of what Tsai gets in the district. If the candidate is a DPP challenger (DPP_cand), that's worth about 5% above the baseline. If the candidate is a DPP incumbent (DPP_inc), that's worth about another 6%, or about 95% of Tsai's vote share. (This differs from the calculations above because I dropped outliers--the Taitung case is apparently doing a lot of heavy lifting for incumbent advantage there!) If the candidate is an NPP challenger (NPP_cand), that's worth about 7.5% alone: not as good as a DPP incumbent, but better than a generic DPP challenger. 

The conclusion is consistent with what's shown in the graph: the NPP's district candidates ran really well, outperforming both other non-DPP candidates and, surprisingly, even DPP candidates. 
What's It All Mean?
​I'm not sure why the NPP did so much better than all the other DPP-endorsed third party candidates. But one part of the explanation is probably the "star power" of the NPP nominees: Hung, Lim, and Huang already had high name recognition, and they all had distinct personal stories that allowed them to attract even more media attention. They also coordinated their campaigns closely with the Tsai campaign, going so far as to appear together during campaign rallies. Most of the other DPP-endorsed candidates didn't get that kind of support from the top of the DPP ticket. 

Another possible explanation is the NPP's close association with the Sunflower Movement. By focusing mostly on their shared antipathy to Ma Ying-jeou, the KMT, and the incumbent party's attempts to build a closer relationship with the PRC, the NPP was reinforcing the DPP's core message. By contrast, the other third-party candidates--particularly the SDP's Fan Yun--sought to emphasize other issues orthogonal to cross-Strait relations, such as labor rights, environmental protection, and free trade. Given how far behind Fan Yun ran, and how poorly the SDP-Greens did in the party list vote, there's little evidence that these issues motivated most voters, even in Taipei.

Instead, the new party system looks a lot like the old party system: all the parties in the legislature can be arrayed along a single dimension based on their approach to cross-Strait relations. Parties that tried to win votes on other issues didn't do well at all. Despite all the talk about the rise of a "Third Force" in Taiwanese politics, there's little evidence in the election results that voters were swayed by appeals orthogonal to cross-Strait relations. Rather, views about Taiwan's relationship with the PRC still seem to be the primary determinant of vote choice. The electorate's views as a whole may have shifted in a green direction, but the issues of disagreement haven't. Plus ça change... 
0 Comments

Your comment will be posted after it is approved.


Leave a Reply.

    RSS Feed

    About Me

    I am a political scientist with research interests in democratization, elections and election management, parties and party system development, one-party dominance, and the links between domestic politics and external security issues. My regional expertise is in East Asia, with special focus on Taiwan.

    Posting on Bluesky @kharist.bsky.social

    Archives

    April 2025
    February 2025
    January 2025
    November 2024
    October 2024
    May 2024
    March 2024
    January 2024
    December 2023
    November 2023
    October 2023
    August 2023
    May 2023
    April 2023
    March 2023
    February 2023
    January 2023
    December 2022
    November 2022
    October 2022
    September 2022
    August 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    December 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    September 2019
    August 2019
    November 2018
    August 2018
    June 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    October 2017
    August 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015
    September 2015
    July 2015
    June 2015
    May 2015
    March 2015
    February 2015
    January 2015
    November 2014
    October 2014
    September 2014
    August 2014
    July 2014
    May 2014
    April 2014
    March 2014
    February 2014
    January 2014
    December 2013
    November 2013
    October 2013
    September 2013

    Categories

    All
    1992 Elections
    2008 Elections
    2012 Elections
    2014 Elections
    2016 Elections
    2020 Elections
    2022 Elections
    2024 Elections
    Aacs
    Aborigines
    AI
    Alex Tsai
    Alicia Wang
    Annette Lu
    Announcements
    Apsa
    Apsa Cgots
    Arthur P Wolf
    Artificial Intelligence
    Blog Meta
    Book Review
    Brookings Institution
    Campaign Regulation
    CCP
    CDDRL
    CEC
    Chang Ching Chung
    Chang Chun Hsiung
    Chang Jung-wei
    Chang Li-shan
    Chang Ming-ta
    Chang Sho-wen
    Chen Che-nan
    Chen Chien-nian
    Chen Chi Mai
    Chen Chin-te
    Chen Ding-nan
    Chen Fu-hai
    Cheng Chao-fang
    Cheng Cheng-ling
    Cheng Pao-ching
    Chen Kuang-fu
    Chen Kuan-ting
    Chen Ming-wen
    Chen Ou-pu
    Chen Shih Chung
    Chen Shih-chung
    Chen Shui Bian
    Chen Tsang-chiang
    Chen Wan-hui
    Chen Wei-chung
    Chen Ying
    Chen Yu-chen
    Chiang Chi Chen
    Chiang Chi-chen
    Chiang Ching Kuo
    Chiang Jui-hsiung
    Chiang-kai-shek
    Chiang Tsung-yuan
    Chiang Wan-an
    Chin Hui Chu
    Chou Chiang-chieh
    Chou Chun-mi
    Chou Hui-huang
    Chuang Suo Hang
    Chung Chia-pin
    Chung Tung-chin
    Citizen 1985
    Civil Society
    Conferences
    Control Yuan
    Council Of Grand Justices
    Cross-party-negotiating-committee
    Cross Strait Relations
    CSSTA
    Defense Spending
    Demography
    Developmental State
    Diplomacy
    Disinformation
    DPP
    DPP Policy Papers
    Eats
    Economic Security
    Economic Voting
    Electoral Geography
    Electoral Reform
    Electoral Systems Wonkery
    Energy Policy
    Eric Chu
    Executive Yuan
    Fan Yun
    Fellowship
    Frank Hsieh
    Freddy Lim
    Frida Tsai
    Fu Kun Chi
    Fu Kun-chi
    Germany
    Han Kuo Yu
    Han Kuo-yu
    Hau Lung Bin
    Hau Pei Tsun
    Henry Rowen
    Ho Kan-ming
    Hoover Institution
    Housing
    Hou You Yi
    Hou You-yi
    Hsiao Bi Khim
    Hsiao Bi-khim
    Hsieh Fu-hung
    Hsieh Kuo-liang
    Hsieh Lung-chieh
    Hsieh Sam Chung
    Hsu Chen-wei
    Hsu Chih-jung
    Hsu Chung-hsin
    Hsu Hsin-ying
    Hsu Shu-hua
    Hsu Ting-chen
    Huang Hong-cheng
    Huang Kuo Chang
    Huang Kuo-chang
    Huang Min-hui
    Huang Shan Shan
    Huang Shan-shan
    Huang Shih Ming
    Huang Shiou-fang
    Huang Wei-che
    Huang Yung-chin
    Human Rights
    Hung Hsiu Chu
    Hung Tzu Yung
    Hung Tzu-yung
    Influence Operations
    In Memoriam
    Internship
    James Soong
    Japan
    Jiang Yi Huah
    Job Market
    John Chiang
    John Wu
    Journal Of Democracy
    Kao Hung-an
    Kawlo Iyun Pacidal
    Ker Chien Ming
    KMT
    Kmt History
    Ko Chih-en
    Kolas Yotaka
    Ko Wen Je
    Lai Ching Te
    Lai Ching-te
    Lai Feng-wei
    Lai Hsiang-ling
    Lee Chin-yung
    Lee Chun Yi
    Lee Chun-yi
    Lee Teng-hui
    Legal-wonkery
    Legislative Yuan
    Liang-kuo-shu
    Liang Su Jung
    Lien Chan
    Lii Wen
    Lin Chia-lung
    Lin Chih-chien
    Lin Fei-fan
    Lin Geng-ren
    Lin Hung Chih
    Lin Ming-chen
    Lin Tsung-hsien
    Lin Zi Miao
    Lin Zi-miao
    Liu Chao-hao
    Liu Cheng-ying
    Liu Chien-kuo
    Liu Kuo Tsai
    Lo Chih Cheng
    Lu Hsiu Yi
    Lu Shiow-yen
    Martial Law
    Ma Vs Wang
    Ma Ying Jeou
    Media
    Media Freedom
    Min Kuo Tang
    Nationalism
    Natsa
    NCC
    New Power Party
    Nuclear Power
    Occupy LY
    Pingpuzu
    Political Economy
    Political Science
    PRC
    PTIP
    Publications
    Public Opinion
    Quality Of Democracy
    Ramon Myers
    Rao Ching-ling
    ROC Constitution
    Russia
    Saidai Tarovecahe
    Sean Lien
    Security Studies
    Semiconductor Industry
    Shen Hui-hung
    Shen Lyu Shun
    Simon Chang
    Song Kuo-ting
    South Korea
    Speaker Series
    Stanford
    Statistics
    Street Protests
    Su Ching-chuan
    Su Huan-chih
    Su Jia Chyuan
    Su Jia-chyuan
    Sunflower Movement
    Su Tseng-chang
    Taiwanese Economy
    Taiwan Journal Of Democracy
    Taiwan People's Party
    Taiwan Rural Front
    Taiwan Solidary Union
    Taiwan Studies
    Taiwan World Congress
    Terry Gou
    Testimony
    The Diplomat
    This Week In Taiwan
    Ting Shou Chung
    Trade Relations
    Trans Pacific Partnership
    Tsai Chi-chang
    Tsai Ing Wen
    Tsai Shih-ying
    Tsao Chi-hung
    Tsao Er-yuan
    Tseng Yung Chuan
    Tzu Chi
    Ukraine
    United Nations
    Uscc
    US Taiwan NextGen
    Us Taiwan Relations
    V-dem
    Wang Chien-hsien
    Wang Chung-ming
    Wang Huei-mei
    Wang Jin Pyng
    Wang Mei-hui
    Wan Mei-ling
    Wei Yao Kan
    Wellington Koo
    Weng Chang-liang
    Wild Lily Movement
    Wilson Center
    Wu Den Yi
    Wu Yung Hsiung
    Xi Jinping
    Yang Cheng-wu
    Yang Shi-chiu
    Yang Wen-ke
    Yang Yao
    Yao Eng-chi
    Yao Wen-chih
    Yosi Takun
    You Si-kun
    Yu Shyi Kun

    RSS Feed

Powered by Create your own unique website with customizable templates.