Kharis Templeman
中文姓名:祁凱立
  • Home
  • Research
  • Teaching
  • CV
  • Blog
  • Taiwan Studies Resources

Some Quick Thoughts on the Race for 2016

9/19/2015

0 Comments

 
Picture
One of the more creative ways to run away from the KMT's toxic brand right now: a billboard for the new Republic Party (Min-Kuo Tang, a play on the Kuo-min Tang).
We're now four months away from the presidential and legislative elections in Taiwan, to be held on January 16th. At this point polls start to tell us something meaningful about how the election will turn out. To my eye, there are three things that stick out:

1. Taiwanese voters care most about the economy, and they overwhelmingly evaluate it as "bad."
A Taiwan Brain Trust poll that came out yesterday reports that about 64% of respondents named economic development as the primary issue in next year's elections--far outstripping government effectiveness (about 17%) and cross-Strait relations (only about 4.5%). 

Another poll from Taiwan Indicators Survey Research ll (TISR) that came out on Monday finds that an astounding 84% of respondents evaluated the overall state of the domestic economy as "bad" ("認為國內整體經濟狀況不好“); only 8% thought it was good. 

The headline numbers in both these polls focus on support for the three major candidates--Tsai Ing-wen, Hung Hsiu-chu, and Soong Chu-yu (aka James Soong). I think they're burying the lede. Economic conditions are a powerful determinant of election outcomes: in general, incumbents get the credit when people think the economic is doing well, and they get the blame when it is not--whether or not they actually have much control over economic outcomes at all. So the fact that most Taiwanese poll respondents are emphasizing the state of the economy, and that the large majority think it is bad, bodes very poorly for the KMT. (Note that this cannot just be Pan-Green supporters expressing discontent about the economy: this is 84% of all respondents. Dissatisfaction with the economy crosses party lines.) 

These results suggest that, like in the local elections in 2014, the KMT is going to be fighting a massive headwind. Even if they had a strong candidate (ahem, Chu Li-lun?) atop the ticket, I would expect them to lose with these numbers. With Hung Hsiu-chu as the nominee, and James Soong running yet another third-party campaign that's offering an alternative to Pan-Blue voters who don't like Hung, the presidential election already looks overdetermined. The KMT is going to lose, badly. And Tsai Ing-wen, by default, is going to win. 

At this point, though, I'd be very cautious about interpreting an impending DPP victory as anything other than a rejection of the KMT. There will inevitably be people in Taiwan and in Washington, DC who will frame this outcome as a repudiation of closer cross-Strait relations with the PRC, or an endorsement of Taiwanese independence. It's time to start beating the drum that the election is not about cross-Strait relations. It's not about independence or unification. It's not really even about a new "third force" of youth activism and social progressive politics. The 2016 election is about the economy. 
  
Picture
2. The KMT is really unpopular, but support for the DPP and Tsai Ing-wen is soft.
Dissatisfaction with the KMT is really high right now. Taiwan Brain Trust puts it at 71%, which is a significant improvement from December 2014, when the rate was 80%.

What is more surprising is that the DPP is still not very popular in absolute terms. Throughout 2015, the DPP has had higher negatives than positives in the Taiwan Brain Trust survey results. The most recent poll finds about 45% dissatisfied with the DPP, and 42% satisfied. That's actually a significant improvement as well; for polls in March, April, and June over half of respondents were dissatisfied with the DPP. The TISR results are more positive for both the DPP and KMT, probably because survey uses a "feelings thermometer" to rank the parties on a scale from 0 to 100: the DPP ranks slightly positively with a net score of 52.0, as compared to the KMT's 35.7. That's still not particularly strong given the circumstances. 

Tsai Ing-wen's polling support is also still short of 50%; TISR finds 43.6% of respondents intend to vote for her, which is a new high in recent months. Undecideds and those saying they won't vote combined are still 25% of the electorate. Taiwan Brain Trust puts it a bit higher, at 46.8%.

What this suggests to me, again, is that Tsai and the DPP are positioned to do well in 2016 mostly because they're not Ma Ying-jeou and the KMT. Given how widespread dissatisfaction with the economy is right now, they're going to win a lot of swing votes as the "lesser of two evils." 

Picture
3. The NPP might replace the TSU in the legislature.
The Taiwan Solidarity Union has three seats in the current LY. They're the deep green alternative to the DPP, and they've been struggling to hang on ever since the electoral system change in 2008 shut them out of the legislature. They need to pass 5% in the party list vote to get seats, which they did easily in 2012, winning 8.96%. They're currently polling at less than half that: they're at about 4.1% in the Taiwan Brain Trust poll. They're being outpolled now by the New Power Party (時代力量), at 6.8%, and James Soong's People First Party at 5.6%. 

There's a real possibility that the NPP takes a lot of votes from the TSU, passing the PR threshold while the TSU doesn't, and effectively replacing it on the deep green end of the political spectrum. It's notoriously difficult to poll support for small parties, so treat these as very rough estimates. The NPP is deliberately trying to appeal to young voters, who turn out at lower rates and are less predictable in their voting patterns than older generations. For another, the NPP is actually cooperating with the DPP in its district nominations--I'm not sure how this might affect the party list vote. 

(A third reason to be wary of the Taiwan Brain Trust numbers on the small parties: Hsu Yung-ming (徐永明), a professor at Soochow University, is both the polling director for the survey and now a legislative candidate for the NPP.)

There's a real danger here for the Pan-Green camp if their voters fail to coordinate in the party list vote: the Green Party and Social Democratic Party are running a joint list that may appeal to a lot of the same young, well-educated voters that the NPP is making a play for. They're currently polling at 1.8%, according to the Taiwan Brain Trust survey. It's not hard to imagine the NPP, Green-SDP, and TSU all pulling some Pan-Green support and each getting 3-4% of the PR list vote, leaving them all with no seats, while the PFP passes the threshold and wins several seats. If the district results end up closely split, the Pan-Green camp could even be denied a majority in the LY despite a significant advantage in the overall share of the vote. 

While I don't think it's particularly likely to happen, a Pan-Green win in the popular vote that leaves a Pan-Blue majority in control of the legislature would be a serious problem for Taiwan's democracy. So one thing I'll be paying close attention to in this election is how, or whether, this coordination problem is resolved in some way before the election.

0 Comments

Your comment will be posted after it is approved.


Leave a Reply.

    RSS Feed

    About Me

    I am a political scientist with research interests in democratization, elections and election management, parties and party system development, one-party dominance, and the links between domestic politics and external security issues. My regional expertise is in East Asia, with special focus on Taiwan.

    Archives

    March 2023
    February 2023
    January 2023
    December 2022
    November 2022
    October 2022
    September 2022
    August 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    March 2021
    February 2021
    December 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    September 2019
    August 2019
    November 2018
    August 2018
    June 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    October 2017
    August 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015
    September 2015
    July 2015
    June 2015
    May 2015
    March 2015
    February 2015
    January 2015
    November 2014
    October 2014
    September 2014
    August 2014
    July 2014
    May 2014
    April 2014
    March 2014
    February 2014
    January 2014
    December 2013
    November 2013
    October 2013
    September 2013

    Categories

    All
    1992 Elections
    2008 Elections
    2012 Elections
    2014 Elections
    2016 Elections
    2020 Elections
    2022 Elections
    Aacs
    Aborigines
    Alex Tsai
    Alicia Wang
    Annette Lu
    Announcements
    Apsa
    Apsa Cgots
    Arthur P Wolf
    Blog Meta
    Book Review
    Campaign Regulation
    CCP
    CDDRL
    CEC
    Chang Ching Chung
    Chang Chun Hsiung
    Chang Jung-wei
    Chang Li-shan
    Chang Ming-ta
    Chang Sho-wen
    Chen Che-nan
    Chen Chien-nian
    Chen Chi Mai
    Chen Chin-te
    Chen Ding-nan
    Chen Fu-hai
    Cheng Chao-fang
    Cheng Cheng-ling
    Cheng Pao-ching
    Chen Kuang-fu
    Chen Ming-wen
    Chen Ou-pu
    Chen Shih Chung
    Chen Shih-chung
    Chen Shui Bian
    Chen Tsang-chiang
    Chen Wan-hui
    Chen Wei-chung
    Chen Ying
    Chen Yu-chen
    Chiang Chi-chen
    Chiang Ching Kuo
    Chiang Jui-hsiung
    Chiang-kai-shek
    Chiang Tsung-yuan
    Chiang Wan-an
    Chin Hui Chu
    Chou Chiang-chieh
    Chou Chun-mi
    Chou Hui-huang
    Chuang Suo Hang
    Chung Chia-pin
    Chung Tung-chin
    Citizen 1985
    Civil Society
    Conferences
    Control Yuan
    Council Of Grand Justices
    Cross-party-negotiating-committee
    Cross Strait Relations
    CSSTA
    Defense Spending
    Developmental State
    Diplomacy
    Disinformation
    DPP
    DPP Policy Papers
    Eats
    Economic-voting
    Electoral Geography
    Electoral Reform
    Electoral Systems Wonkery
    Energy Policy
    Eric Chu
    Executive Yuan
    Fan Yun
    Fellowship
    Frank Hsieh
    Freddy Lim
    Frida Tsai
    Fu Kun-chi
    Germany
    Han Kuo Yu
    Han Kuo-yu
    Hau Lung Bin
    Hau Pei Tsun
    Henry Rowen
    Ho Kan-ming
    Hoover Institution
    Hou You Yi
    Hou You-yi
    Hsiao Bi Khim
    Hsiao Bi-khim
    Hsieh Fu-hung
    Hsieh Kuo-liang
    Hsieh Lung-chieh
    Hsieh Sam Chung
    Hsu Chen-wei
    Hsu Chih-jung
    Hsu Chung-hsin
    Hsu Hsin-ying
    Hsu Shu-hua
    Hsu Ting-chen
    Huang Hong-cheng
    Huang Kuo Chang
    Huang Kuo-chang
    Huang Min-hui
    Huang Shan Shan
    Huang Shan-shan
    Huang Shih Ming
    Huang Shiou-fang
    Huang Wei-che
    Huang Yung-chin
    Human Rights
    Hung Hsiu Chu
    Hung Tzu Yung
    Hung Tzu-yung
    Influence Operations
    In Memoriam
    Internship
    James Soong
    Japan
    Jiang Yi Huah
    Job Market
    John Chiang
    John Wu
    Journal Of Democracy
    Kao Hung-an
    Kawlo Iyun Pacidal
    Ker Chien Ming
    KMT
    Kmt History
    Ko Chih-en
    Kolas Yotaka
    Ko Wen Je
    Lai Ching-te
    Lai Feng-wei
    Lai Hsiang-ling
    Lee Chin-yung
    Lee Chun-yi
    Legal-wonkery
    Legislative Yuan
    Liang-kuo-shu
    Liang Su Jung
    Lien Chan
    Lii Wen
    Lin Chia-lung
    Lin Chih-chien
    Lin Fei-fan
    Lin Geng-ren
    Lin Hung Chih
    Lin Ming-chen
    Lin Tsung-hsien
    Lin Zi Miao
    Lin Zi-miao
    Liu Chao-hao
    Liu Cheng-ying
    Liu Chien-kuo
    Liu Kuo Tsai
    Lo Chih Cheng
    Lu Hsiu Yi
    Lu Shiow-yen
    Ma Vs Wang
    Ma Ying Jeou
    Media
    Media Freedom
    Min Kuo Tang
    Nationalism
    Natsa
    NCC
    New Power Party
    Nuclear Power
    Occupy LY
    Pingpuzu
    Political Economy
    Political Science
    PRC
    PTIP
    Publications
    Public Opinion
    Quality Of Democracy
    Ramon Myers
    Rao Ching-ling
    ROC Constitution
    Russia
    Saidai Tarovecahe
    Sean Lien
    Security Studies
    Shen Hui-hung
    Shen Lyu Shun
    Simon Chang
    Song Kuo-ting
    South Korea
    Speaker Series
    Stanford
    Statistics
    Street Protests
    Su Ching-chuan
    Su Huan-chih
    Su Jia Chyuan
    Su Jia-chyuan
    Sunflower Movement
    Su Tseng-chang
    Taiwanese Economy
    Taiwan Journal Of Democracy
    Taiwan People's Party
    Taiwan Rural Front
    Taiwan Solidary Union
    Taiwan Studies
    Taiwan World Congress
    Terry Gou
    Testimony
    The Diplomat
    This Week In Taiwan
    Ting Shou Chung
    Trade Relations
    Trans Pacific Partnership
    Tsai Chi-chang
    Tsai Ing Wen
    Tsai Shih-ying
    Tsao Chi-hung
    Tsao Er-yuan
    Tseng Yung Chuan
    Tzu Chi
    Ukraine
    United Nations
    Uscc
    US Taiwan NextGen
    Us Taiwan Relations
    V-dem
    Wang Chien-hsien
    Wang Chung-ming
    Wang Huei-mei
    Wang Jin Pyng
    Wang Mei-hui
    Wan Mei-ling
    Wei Yao Kan
    Wellington Koo
    Weng Chang-liang
    Wild Lily Movement
    Wilson Center
    Wu Den Yi
    Wu Yung Hsiung
    Xi Jinping
    Yang Cheng-wu
    Yang Shi-chiu
    Yang Wen-ke
    Yang Yao
    Yao Eng-chi
    Yao Wen-chih
    Yosi Takun
    You Si-kun
    Yu Shyi Kun

    RSS Feed

Powered by Create your own unique website with customizable templates.